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ArticlePublication 2020Social Aspirations and Risk-Taking Behavior in Avalanche Terrain
In this analysis, authors explore whether the desire to gain social status is associated with …
In this analysis, authors explore whether the desire to gain social status is associated with an increased willingness to take risk among backcountry riders. They refer to this factor as "positionality.” Authors hypothesize that if positional preferences drive risk-taking behavior in avalanche terrain, this would be consequential given that the stakes are high and can be fatal. Their analysis is based on data collected from an online survey with over 600 subjects in North America…
Injuries/Accidents | Decision Psychology | Climate/Environment | Culture/Society | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Decision Making/Leadership -
ArticlePublication 2020Avalanche Decision Making Frameworks: Underlying Factors
Snow avalanches are a complex phenomenon and correct assessment of avalanche danger is crucial in …
Snow avalanches are a complex phenomenon and correct assessment of avalanche danger is crucial in order to avoid accidents. To aid the decision making process, different decision making frameworks have been developed. This study identifies 53 total key factors that inform decision making: 44 factors based on the ten most commonly used decision making frameworks and nine additional factors regarded as important by avalanche professionals. Authors found that the number of factors used by the…
Injuries/Accidents | Decision Psychology | Business/Industry | Climate/Environment | Culture/Society | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership -
ArticlePublication 2020Heuristic Traps Paradigm in Avalanche Education: Past, Present, Future
This paper reviews the emergence and adoption of “decision heuristics” as a conceptual framework within …
This paper reviews the emergence and adoption of “decision heuristics” as a conceptual framework within the avalanche research and education community. While the authors acknowledge the paradigm shifting work by McCammon on “heuristic traps” as a critical and meaningful step to recognize the importance of human factors in avalanche accidents, their objective in this paper is to illuminate some of the key gaps in terms of how these ideas have been translated in the avalanche…
Injuries/Accidents | Decision Psychology | Probability/Bayes | Culture/Society | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Decision Making/Leadership -
ArticlePublication 2019Bayesian Reasoning in Avalanche Terrain
This article describes a Bayesian approach to decision making with regards to managing avalanche risk. …
This article describes a Bayesian approach to decision making with regards to managing avalanche risk. Authors use a stylized example with simplified assumptions about the risk of an avalanche occurring, risk of fatality if it does occur, and the "test characteristics" of a slope-stability test. This example demonstrates how Bayes theorem can provide quantitative insight into a common bias referred to as the “base-rate fallacy” or “base-rate neglect.” The cognitive bias, described by Kahneman and…
Injuries/Accidents | Decision Psychology | Probability/Bayes | Culture/Society | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2015Human Factors in High-Altitude Mountaineering
This publication describes the human performance and cognitive challenges of high altitude mountaineering, with attention …
This publication describes the human performance and cognitive challenges of high altitude mountaineering, with attention to three categories of factors, which include: (1) physical and environmental factors, (2) internal physiologic and health factors, and (3) behavioral psychology and motivational factors that drive mountaineers to climb. The authors summarize key statistics associated with mountaineering accidents in the Himalayas and Alaska, and explore the role of decision making biases, taking into account interpersonal factors, training consideration, and…
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ArticlePublication 2010Heuristics, Avalanche Forecast, Risk Propensity: Decision Making of Backcountry Skiers
To better understand how individuals make decisions in avalanche terrain, this study assesses decision making …
To better understand how individuals make decisions in avalanche terrain, this study assesses decision making factors identified in the literature as relevant to avalanche accidents. This study also explores how the propensity for risk-taking and the presence of certain avalanche forecast factors might influence decision making. The authors identify five decision making factors, as well as risk-taking propensity and avalanche forecast variables that influence an individual's decision to ski in specific avalanche territory. The implications…
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ArticlePublication 2004Heuristic Traps in Recreational Avalanche Accidents: Evidence and Implications
This study evaluates the influence of six heuristic traps in avalanche accidents through a review …
This study evaluates the influence of six heuristic traps in avalanche accidents through a review of 715 recreational accidents that took place in the United States between 1972 and 2003. Data for the study came from records maintained by the Colorado Avalanche Information Center, Westwide Avalanche Network, the Cyberspace Snow and Avalanche Center, avalanche forecast center annual reports, and various internet and newspaper resources. The author focused on six heuristics in particular, which include familiarity,…
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ArticlePublication 2004Decision Making in Avalanche Terrain
Making decisions about backcountry skiing requires one to predict, manage, and mitigate avalanche risk. Individuals …
Making decisions about backcountry skiing requires one to predict, manage, and mitigate avalanche risk. Individuals need to understand and be comfortable with the language of probability, as well as appreciate the cognitive biases that can come into play in the context of decision making. This publication describes a computer simulation tool for backcountry ski guides, and draws on a variety of “real-world” scenarios. Using the simulation tool, a player selects a role that is defined…
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ArticlePublication 2002Lessons from Everest: Cognitive Bias, Psychological Safety, System Complexity
The 1996 Mount Everest tragedy has been analyzed by laypersons, mountaineering experts, and social scientists. …
The 1996 Mount Everest tragedy has been analyzed by laypersons, mountaineering experts, and social scientists. Multiple factors have been implicated in those analyses, such as environment and weather, technology and equipment failure, and human behavior and error. This article examines the events and decision making of individuals and groups through three theoretical lenses: (1) behavioral decision theory, (2) group dynamics, and (3) complex systems. The author describes how key factors exert influence at the level…
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