Heuristic Traps Paradigm in Avalanche Education: Past, Present, Future

To better understand how individuals make decisions in avalanche terrain, this study assesses decision making factors identified in the literature as relevant to avalanche accidents. This study also explores how the propensity for risk-taking and the presence of certain avalanche forecast factors might influence decision making. The authors identify five decision making factors, as well as risk-taking propensity and avalanche forecast variables that influence an individual's decision to ski in specific avalanche territory. The implications…

In this analysis, authors explore whether the desire to gain social status is associated with an increased willingness to take risk among backcountry riders. They refer to this factor as "positionality.” Authors hypothesize that if positional preferences drive risk-taking behavior in avalanche terrain, this would be consequential given that the stakes are high and can be fatal. Their analysis is based on data collected from an online survey with over 600 subjects in North America…

This article describes a Bayesian approach to decision making with regards to managing avalanche risk. Authors use a stylized example with simplified assumptions about the risk of an avalanche occurring, risk of fatality if it does occur, and the "test characteristics" of a slope-stability test. This example demonstrates how Bayes theorem can provide quantitative insight into a common bias referred to as the “base-rate fallacy” or “base-rate neglect.” The cognitive bias, described by Kahneman and…