Lessons from Everest: Cognitive Bias, Psychological Safety, System Complexity

To better understand how individuals make decisions in avalanche terrain, this study assesses decision making factors identified in the literature as relevant to avalanche accidents. This study also explores how the propensity for risk-taking and the presence of certain avalanche forecast factors might influence decision making. The authors identify five decision making factors, as well as risk-taking propensity and avalanche forecast variables that influence an individual's decision to ski in specific avalanche territory. The implications…

Snow avalanches are a complex phenomenon and correct assessment of avalanche danger is crucial in order to avoid accidents. To aid the decision making process, different decision making frameworks have been developed. This study identifies 53 total key factors that inform decision making: 44 factors based on the ten most commonly used decision making frameworks and nine additional factors regarded as important by avalanche professionals. Authors found that the number of factors used by the…

This article describes a Bayesian approach to decision making with regards to managing avalanche risk. Authors use a stylized example with simplified assumptions about the risk of an avalanche occurring, risk of fatality if it does occur, and the "test characteristics" of a slope-stability test. This example demonstrates how Bayes theorem can provide quantitative insight into a common bias referred to as the “base-rate fallacy” or “base-rate neglect.” The cognitive bias, described by Kahneman and…