Bayesian Reasoning in Avalanche Terrain
2019
This article describes a Bayesian approach to decision making with regards to managing avalanche risk. Authors use a stylized example with simplified assumptions about the risk of an avalanche occurring, risk of fatality if it does occur, and the "test characteristics" of a slope-stability test. This example demonstrates how Bayes theorem can provide quantitative insight into a common bias referred to as the “base-rate fallacy” or “base-rate neglect.” The cognitive bias, described by Kahneman and Tversky in their seminal paper of 1973, refers to a common cognitive error in which one ignores an initial estimate of the likelihood of an event once they acquire new information. In other words, the individual is influenced by a test result to a far greater degree than might be mathematically correct, not taking into consideration their initial belief before that test result.
The article does not address whether backcountry skiers in particular are more or less prone to this particular fallacy. The author's intent is to illustrate how a Bayesian approach might offer useful insights into decision making errors and encourages the inclusion of Bayes theorem in avalanche educational curricula.
Bayesian Reasoning in Avalanche Terrain
Source:
Ebert P. Bayesian Reasoning in Avalanche Terrain: A Theoretical Investigation. Journal of Adventure Education and Outdoor Learning 2019; 19 (1) 84-95. https://doi.org/10.1080/14729679.2018.1508356