Decision Making in Avalanche Terrain
2004
Making decisions about backcountry skiing requires one to predict, manage, and mitigate avalanche risk. Individuals need to understand and be comfortable with the language of probability, as well as appreciate the cognitive biases that can come into play in the context of decision making.
This publication describes a computer simulation tool for backcountry ski guides, and draws on a variety of “real-world” scenarios. Using the simulation tool, a player selects a role that is defined by two human behavioral factors: ambition and popularity. Over the course of the simulation, a player is faced with decisions that influence his or her safety, as well as impact factors (ambition and popularity). In the simulation, avalanches are triggered based on a probability function, where a player can experience the consequences of relatively small occurrence probabilities and subsequently better understand the existing risks and how to mitigate them.
Decision Making in Avalanche Terrain
Source:
Gruber U. Decision Making in Avalanche Terrain. Human Error, Safety and Systems Development 2004; 152: 147-162. https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-8153-7_10