Heuristic Traps in Recreational Avalanche Accidents: Evidence and Implications
2004
This study evaluates the influence of six heuristic traps in avalanche accidents through a review of 715 recreational accidents that took place in the United States between 1972 and 2003. Data for the study came from records maintained by the Colorado Avalanche Information Center, Westwide Avalanche Network, the Cyberspace Snow and Avalanche Center, avalanche forecast center annual reports, and various internet and newspaper resources.
The author focused on six heuristics in particular, which include familiarity, consistency, acceptance, the expert halo, social facilitation, and scarcity. The paper emphasizes that while these heuristics can work remarkably well to help us with decisions in our daily lives, they are “fertile ground” for heuristic traps in the context of decision making about avalanche risk.
Because the study is based on a retrospective analysis of accidents, it is limited to providing insights into the correlations between victims’ behavior and heuristic biases, but not into causation.
Heuristic Traps in Recreational Avalanche Accidents: Evidence and Implications
Source:
McCammon I. Heuristic Traps in Recreational Avalanche Accidents: Evidence and Implications. Avalanche News 2004; 68. http://www.sunrockice.com/docs/Heuristic%20traps%20IM%202004.pdf