Heuristics, Avalanche Forecast, Risk Propensity: Decision Making of Backcountry Skiers

This publication describes the human performance and cognitive challenges of high altitude mountaineering, with attention to three categories of factors, which include: (1) physical and environmental factors, (2) internal physiologic and health factors, and (3) behavioral psychology and motivational factors that drive mountaineers to climb. The authors summarize key statistics associated with mountaineering accidents in the Himalayas and Alaska, and explore the role of decision making biases, taking into account interpersonal factors, training consideration, and…

Making decisions about backcountry skiing requires one to predict, manage, and mitigate avalanche risk. Individuals need to understand and be comfortable with the language of probability, as well as appreciate the cognitive biases that can come into play in the context of decision making. This publication describes a computer simulation tool for backcountry ski guides, and draws on a variety of “real-world” scenarios. Using the simulation tool, a player selects a role that is defined…

This study evaluates the influence of six heuristic traps in avalanche accidents through a review of 715 recreational accidents that took place in the United States between 1972 and 2003. Data for the study came from records maintained by the Colorado Avalanche Information Center, Westwide Avalanche Network, the Cyberspace Snow and Avalanche Center, avalanche forecast center annual reports, and various internet and newspaper resources. The author focused on six heuristics in particular, which include familiarity,…