Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2022Excess Mortality and Elevated Body Weight in the U.S.
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by …
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by state and demographic subgroup. The authors developed a nationally-representative microsimulation (individual-level) model of US adults between 1999 and 2016, based on risk factor data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and body-mass index (BMI) mortality hazard ratios from a global pooling dataset. The model was calibrated to empirical all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER by state and subgroup, and…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | North America | Social Determinants | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Outcomes -
ArticlePublication 2013Contribution of H. Pylori and Smoking to US Incidence of Gastric Adenocarcinoma: A Microsimulation Model
Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading …
Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. This analysis estimates the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type non-cardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence. The authors developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to U.S. epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | North America | Social Determinants | Chronic Disease/Risk | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2019Estimation of Eating Disorders Prevalence by Age and Associations with Mortality in a Simulated Nationally Representative U.S. Cohort
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, …
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, and estimates the association of increased treatment coverage with ED-related mortality. Using an individual-level Markov state transition model calibrated to nationally-representative US survey data from 2007 and 2011, the authors simulated a virtual cohort of 100,000 individuals (50% male) from birth to age 40 years and modelled 4 ED diagnoses: anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, binge eating disorder, and other specified…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | North America | Mental Health | Health Outcomes | Child/Nutrition -
ArticlePublication 2019Projected U.S. State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity and Severe Obesity
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories …
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories of body-mass index (BMI) in the United States. Self-reported BMI from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey (1993-1994 and 1999-2016) were obtained and corrected for quantile-specific self-reporting bias. Multinomial regressions were then fitted for each state and subgroup to estimate the prevalence of four BMI categories from 1990 through 2030: underweight or normal weight (BMI <25), overweight (25 to…
Calibration/Validation | North America | Social Determinants | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of COVID-19 on Cancer Diagnosis and Survival in Chile
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in …
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in Chile, using a microsimulation model of five cancers: breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach. The model simulates cancer incidence and progression, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities, and was calibrated to empirical data on monthly detected cases, stage at diagnosis, and 5-year net survival. The analysis accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on month-by-month excess mortality and…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Latin America & Caribbean | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Outcomes | Infectious Diseases -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2020Resource Pack: Cost-Effectiveness of SSB Excise Taxes
The use of fiscal instruments, such as taxes or subsidies, to promote healthier dietary behavior …
The use of fiscal instruments, such as taxes or subsidies, to promote healthier dietary behavior has been of increasing interest in the last decade as the evidence-base builds for the health and economic consequences of obesity, overweight, and unhealthy eating. The motivation for using fiscal instruments in nutrition policy is to make the unhealthy option less affordable and less economically attractive by increasing the price via a tax, and therefore reduce the incentive to consume…
Microsimulation | Latin America & Caribbean | North America | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Food/Agriculture | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Europe | Oceania -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2020Resource Pack: SSB Excise Tax Briefs (CHOICES)
Rising rates of obesity represent one of the greatest public health threats facing the United …
Rising rates of obesity represent one of the greatest public health threats facing the United States. Obesity has been linked to excess consumption of sugary drinks. Federal, state, and local governments have considered implementing excise taxes on sugary drinks to reduce consumption, reduce obesity, and provide a new source of government revenue. This resource pack includes a series of briefs describing analyses conducted by the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost-Effectiveness Study (CHOICES), evaluating the health and economic impact…
Microsimulation | North America | Social Determinants | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Decision Making/Leadership | Policy Translation | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2020Expanding Oral Disease Treatment is Cost Effective
This study developed a stochastic microsimulation model of oral health conditions, type-2 diabetes (T2D), T2D-related …
This study developed a stochastic microsimulation model of oral health conditions, type-2 diabetes (T2D), T2D-related microvascular diseases, and CVD, to project the cost-effectiveness of expanding periodontal treatment coverage among patients with T2D and periodontitis. Previous randomized trials found that treating periodontitis improved glycemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D), thus lowering the risks of developing T2D-related microvascular diseases and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The micro-simulation model parameters were obtained from the nationally representative National…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | North America | Chronic Disease/Risk | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | Graduate -
Resource PackWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2018Resource Pack: Mental Health and Modeling
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, features resources on modeling …
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, features resources on modeling approaches applied to mental health. We aim to provide an overview of different techniques to guide researchers and practitioners in applying decision science and economic modeling to this public health challenge. More specifically, this resource pack contains review articles comparing different modeling techniques in the evaluation of treatments for depression, bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. The majority of articles in this…
Microsimulation | North America | Chronic Disease/Risk | Mental Health | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | Europe