Excess Mortality and Elevated Body Weight in the U.S.
2022
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by state and demographic subgroup. The authors developed a nationally-representative microsimulation (individual-level) model of US adults between 1999 and 2016, based on risk factor data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and body-mass index (BMI) mortality hazard ratios from a global pooling dataset. The model was calibrated to empirical all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER by state and subgroup, and estimates that excess weight was responsible for more than 1,300 excess deaths per day (nearly 500,000 per year) and a loss in life expectancy of nearly 2.4 years in 2016, contributing to higher excess mortality than smoking. Relative excess mortality rates were nearly twice as high for women compared to men in 2016 (21.9% vs 13.9%), and were higher for Black non-Hispanic adults. By state, overall excess weight-related life expectancy loss ranged from 1.75 years (95% UI 1.57-1.94) in Colorado to 3.18 years (95% UI 2.86-3.51) in Mississippi. Overall, this analysis finds that excess weight has substantial impacts on mortality in the USA, with large disparities by state and subgroup.
Excess Mortality and Elevated Body Weight in the U.S.
Source:
Ward ZJ, Willett WC, Hu FB, Pacheco LS, Long MW, Gortmaker SL. Excess Mortality Associated with Elevated Body Weight in the USA by State and Demographic Subgroup: A Modelling Study. EClinicalMedicine 2022; 48: 101429. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101429