Projected U.S. State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity and Severe Obesity
2019
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories of body-mass index (BMI) in the United States. Self-reported BMI from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey (1993-1994 and 1999-2016) were obtained and corrected for quantile-specific self-reporting bias. Multinomial regressions were then fitted for each state and subgroup to estimate the prevalence of four BMI categories from 1990 through 2030: underweight or normal weight (BMI <25), overweight (25 to <30), moderate obesity (30 to <35), and severe obesity (≥35). On current trends, by 2030 nearly 1 in 2 adults will have obesity (48.9%; 95% CI 47.7 to 50.1), and the prevalence will be higher than 50% in 29 states and not below 35% in any state. Nearly 1 in 4 adults is projected to have severe obesity by 2030 (24.2%; 95% CI, 22.9 to 25.5), and the prevalence will be higher than 25% in 25 states. Nationally, severe obesity is likely to become the most common BMI category among women (27.6%; 95% CI, 26.1 to 29.2), non-Hispanic black adults (31.7%; 95% CI, 29.9 to 33.4), and low-income adults (31.7%; 95% CI, 30.2 to 33.2). Overall, the prevalence of adult obesity and severe obesity is projected to continue to increase nationwide, with large disparities across states and demographic subgroups.
Projected U.S. State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity and Severe Obesity
Source:
Ward ZJ, Bleich SN, Cradock AL, Barrett JL, Giles CM, Flax C, Long MW, Gortmaker SL. Projected U.S. State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity and Severe Obesity. NEJM 2019; 381 (25): 2440-2450. https://doi.org/10.1056/nejmsa1909301