Impact of COVID-19 on Cancer Diagnosis and Survival in Chile
2021
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in Chile, using a microsimulation model of five cancers: breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach. The model simulates cancer incidence and progression, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities, and was calibrated to empirical data on monthly detected cases, stage at diagnosis, and 5-year net survival. The analysis accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on month-by-month excess mortality and cancer detection during the pandemic, and projected diagnosed cancer cases and survival up to 2030. The model estimated a sharp decrease in the number of diagnosed cancer cases during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a large projected short-term increase in future diagnosed cases. Due to the projected backlog in diagnosis, the model estimated that in 2021 there would be an extra 3,198 cases (95% UI 1,356-5,017) diagnosed among the five modelled cancers, an increase of nearly 14% compared to a no COVID-19 scenario, falling to a projected 10% increase in 2022. As a result of delayed diagnosis, the model estimated a worse stage distribution for detected cancers in 2020-22, which is estimated to lead to 3,542 excess cancer deaths (95% UI 2,236-4,816) in 2022-30, compared with the no COVID-19 scenario, among the five modelled cancers. Potential delays in treatment and adverse impacts on quality of care, which were not considered in this model, are likely to contribute to even more excess deaths from cancer than projected.
Impact of COVID-19 on Cancer Diagnosis and Survival in Chile
Source:
Ward ZJ, Walbaum M, Walbaum B et al. Estimating the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Diagnosis and Survival of Five Cancers in Chile from 2020 to 2030: A Simulation-Based Analysis. The Lancet Oncology 2021; 22 (10): 1427-1437. https://doi.org/10.1016/s1470-2045(21)00426-5