Estimation of Eating Disorders Prevalence by Age and Associations with Mortality in a Simulated Nationally Representative U.S. Cohort
2019
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, and estimates the association of increased treatment coverage with ED-related mortality. Using an individual-level Markov state transition model calibrated to nationally-representative US survey data from 2007 and 2011, the authors simulated a virtual cohort of 100,000 individuals (50% male) from birth to age 40 years and modelled 4 ED diagnoses: anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, binge eating disorder, and other specified feeding and eating disorders (OSFED). The highest estimated mean annual prevalence of ED occurred around age 21 for both males (7.4%; 95% UI, 3.5%-11.5%) and females (10.3%; 95% UI, 7.0%-14.2%), with lifetime mean prevalence estimates increasing to 14.3% (95% UI, 9.7%-19.0%) for males and 19.7% (95% UI, 15.8%-23.9%) for females by age 40. Current treatment coverage averts an estimated mean of 41.7 deaths per 100,000 people (95% UI, 13.0-82.0) by age 40, whereas increasing treatment coverage for all patients with ED could avert an estimated mean of 70.5 deaths per 100,000 people (95% UI, 26.0-143.0). Overall, this study found that the estimated lifetime prevalence of ED was high, with approximately 1 in 7 male and 1 in 5 female individuals having an ED by age 40 years. The initial onset of EDs was highly concentrated during adolescence and young adulthood, suggesting that this is a critical period for prevention efforts.
Source:
Ward ZJ, Rodriguez P, Wright DR et al. Estimation of Eating Disorders Prevalence by Age and Associations with Mortality in a Simulated Nationally Representative U.S. Cohort. JAMA Network Open 2019; 2 (10): e1912925. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.12925