Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2019Estimating the Total Incidence of Global Childhood Cancer: A Simulation-Based Analysis
This study describes the development of a microsimulation model to simulate childhood cancer incidence for …
This study describes the development of a microsimulation model to simulate childhood cancer incidence for 200 countries/territories, taking into account trends in population growth and urbanicity, geographical variation in cancer incidence, and health system barriers to access and referral that contribute to underdiagnosis. The model was calibrated to publicly available cancer registry data, and the total incidence of childhood cancer (diagnosed and undiagnosed) was estimated for each country in 2015 and projections made to 2030.…
Microsimulation | Health Outcomes | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Global -
ArticlePublication 2019Estimation of Eating Disorders Prevalence by Age and Associations with Mortality in a Simulated Nationally Representative U.S. Cohort
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, …
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, and estimates the association of increased treatment coverage with ED-related mortality. Using an individual-level Markov state transition model calibrated to nationally-representative US survey data from 2007 and 2011, the authors simulated a virtual cohort of 100,000 individuals (50% male) from birth to age 40 years and modelled 4 ED diagnoses: anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, binge eating disorder, and other specified…
Microsimulation | Health Outcomes | Calibration/Validation | Child/Nutrition | Mental Health | North America -
ArticlePublication 2022Excess Mortality and Elevated Body Weight in the U.S.
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by …
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by state and demographic subgroup. The authors developed a nationally-representative microsimulation (individual-level) model of US adults between 1999 and 2016, based on risk factor data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and body-mass index (BMI) mortality hazard ratios from a global pooling dataset. The model was calibrated to empirical all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER by state and subgroup, and…
Microsimulation | Health Outcomes | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of COVID-19 on Cancer Diagnosis and Survival in Chile
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in …
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in Chile, using a microsimulation model of five cancers: breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach. The model simulates cancer incidence and progression, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities, and was calibrated to empirical data on monthly detected cases, stage at diagnosis, and 5-year net survival. The analysis accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on month-by-month excess mortality and…
Microsimulation | Health Outcomes | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of Treatment and Imaging Modalities on Global Breast Cancer Survival
This analysis used a microsimulation model of global cancer survival to simulate 5-year net survival …
This analysis used a microsimulation model of global cancer survival to simulate 5-year net survival for women with newly diagnosed breast cancer in 200 countries/territories in 2018, accounting for the availability and stage-specific survival impact of specific treatment modalities (chemotherapy, radiotherapy, surgery, and targeted therapy), imaging modalities (ultrasound, x-ray, CT, MRI, PET, and single-photon emission computed tomography [SPECT]), and quality of cancer care. The model was calibrated to empirical data on 5-year net breast cancer…
Microsimulation | Health Outcomes | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Global -
Tools/ModelsWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2019Australia & New Zealand Health Intervention Interactive League Table
This interactive league table contains more than 800 Australian and New Zealand evaluations of public …
This interactive league table contains more than 800 Australian and New Zealand evaluations of public health intervention impacts on health gains (in quality/disability/health adjusted life years), health system costs and cost effectiveness. It allows users (policy-makers, researchers, health professionals, general public) to compare the health gains and costs associated with different interventions. The web portal provides access to a Users Guide and a Plain Language Summary of how to interpret table and graph outputs. Read the research…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Mental Health | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Asia & Pacific | Oceania | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Graphics/Visualization -
ArticlePublication 2021Rational Policymaking during a Pandemic
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and …
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, the authors argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process.
Priority Setting/Ethics | Decision Theory | Infectious Diseases | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2020Perceptions of COVID-19 around the World
This study evaluates public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world in ten countries across …
This study evaluates public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world in ten countries across Europe, America, and Asia. They found that significant predictors of risk perception included personal experience with the virus, individualistic and prosocial values, hearing about the virus from friends and family, trust in government, science, and medical professionals, personal knowledge of government strategy, and personal and collective efficacy. Although there was substantial variability across cultures, individualistic worldviews, personal experience, prosocial values,…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Risk Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2021Identifying Credible Sources of Health Information in Social Media: Principles and Attributes
Social media is widely used as a source of health information for the general public. …
Social media is widely used as a source of health information for the general public. The potential for information shared through social media to influence health outcomes necessitates action by social media platforms to enhance access and exposure to high-quality, science-based information. This paper summarizes the work of an independent advisory group convened by the National Academy of Medicine that deliberated and gathered information to develop a set of initial principles and attributes that could…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Culture/Society | Education/Labor | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America