Estimating the Total Incidence of Global Childhood Cancer: A Simulation-Based Analysis
2019
This study describes the development of a microsimulation model to simulate childhood cancer incidence for 200 countries/territories, taking into account trends in population growth and urbanicity, geographical variation in cancer incidence, and health system barriers to access and referral that contribute to underdiagnosis. The model was calibrated to publicly available cancer registry data, and the total incidence of childhood cancer (diagnosed and undiagnosed) was estimated for each country in 2015 and projections made to 2030. In 2015, the model estimated that there were 397,000 (95% UI 377,000-426,000) incident cases of childhood cancer worldwide, of which only 224,000 (95% UI 216,000-237,000) were diagnosed. This finding suggests that 43% of childhood cancer cases were undiagnosed globally, with substantial variation by region, ranging from 3% in western Europe and North America to 57% in western Africa. Taking into account population trends, it is projected there will be 6.7 million (95% UI 6.3-7.2) cases of childhood cancer worldwide from 2015 to 2030, with 2.9 million cases (95% UI 2.7-3.3) missed at current levels of health system performance. This analysis finds that global childhood cancer is substantially underdiagnosed, especially in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. In addition to improving treatment for childhood cancer, health systems must be strengthened to accurately diagnose and effectively care for all children with cancer.
Estimating the Total Incidence of Global Childhood Cancer: A Simulation-Based Analysis
Source:
Ward ZJ, Yeh JM, Bhakta N, Frazier AL, Atun R. Estimating the Total Incidence of Global Childhood Cancer: A Simulation-Based Analysis. The Lancet Oncology 2019; 20 (4): 483-493. https://doi.org/10.1016/s1470-2045(18)30909-4
Not open access.