Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2023Single-Arm Trial Design Estimates Efficacy
Studies to confirm the efficacy of a single HPV vaccine dose, of vaccine durability, and …
Studies to confirm the efficacy of a single HPV vaccine dose, of vaccine durability, and of vaccination modifications are needed, but randomized controlled trials are costly and face logistical and ethical challenges. In this study, the authors demonstrate proof-of-principle that a single-arm design yields valid estimates with similar precision to a randomized controlled trial.
Global | Health Outcomes | Infectious Diseases | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2021COVID-19 Mortality and Self-Imposed Behavior Change/Government Regulations
Countries have adopted different approaches, at different times, to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. Cross-country …
Countries have adopted different approaches, at different times, to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. Cross-country comparison could indicate the relative efficacy of these approaches. This article assesses various nonpharmaceutical interventions, comparing the effects of voluntary behavior change and of changes enforced via official regulations, by examining their impacts on subsequent death rates. Voluntarily reduced mobility, occurring prior to government policies, decreases the percent change in deaths per day by 9.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.5–14.0).…
Global | Health Outcomes | Infectious Diseases | Policy/Regulation -
ArticlePublication 2020A Child-Based Human Development Index
Education and health are both constituents of human capital that enable people to earn higher …
Education and health are both constituents of human capital that enable people to earn higher wages and enhance capabilities. A better understanding of how these different human capabilities are produced together could point to opportunities to help jointly reduce the wide disparities in health and education across populations. This article uses nationally and regionally representative individual-level data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for 55 low- and middle-income countries to examine patterns in human capabilities…
Global | Health Outcomes | Child/Nutrition -
ArticlePublication 2021New Microsimulation Models to Inform Cervical Cancer Control
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis …
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and estimate the long-term impact of preventive interventions. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes previously used cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses, which are subjective and lack reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of model transition probabilities. We posit that new model health states and corollary transitions are universal,…
Calibration/Validation | Global | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases -
ArticlePublication 2022WHO ACTION-I Trial in Low Resource Countries
This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of dexamethasone administration in dexamethasone in pregnant women at risk …
This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of dexamethasone administration in dexamethasone in pregnant women at risk of early preterm birth using data from a multicentre, randomized, placebo-controlled trial in Bangladesh, India, Kenya, Nigeria, and Pakistan. Primary cost data were collected in 28 hospitals across the 5 countries. A decision tree model was used to compare dexamethasone treatment to no intervention from a health-care sector perspective. Administration of dexamethasone averted 38 neonatal deaths per 1000 woman–baby units…
Global | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Child/Nutrition | Clinical Care | Sub-Saharan Africa | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2019Estimating the Total Incidence of Global Childhood Cancer: A Simulation-Based Analysis
This study describes the development of a microsimulation model to simulate childhood cancer incidence for …
This study describes the development of a microsimulation model to simulate childhood cancer incidence for 200 countries/territories, taking into account trends in population growth and urbanicity, geographical variation in cancer incidence, and health system barriers to access and referral that contribute to underdiagnosis. The model was calibrated to publicly available cancer registry data, and the total incidence of childhood cancer (diagnosed and undiagnosed) was estimated for each country in 2015 and projections made to 2030.…
Global | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems -
ArticlePublication 2019Global Childhood Cancer Survival Estimates and Priority-Setting: A Simulation-Based Analysis
This modelling study provides estimates of global childhood cancer survival, accounting for the impact of …
This modelling study provides estimates of global childhood cancer survival, accounting for the impact of multiple factors that affect cancer outcomes in children. The authors developed a microsimulation model to simulate childhood cancer survival for 200 countries/territories, accounting for clinical and epidemiologic factors, including country-specific treatment variables, such as availability of chemotherapy, radiation, and surgery, and calibrated the model to empirical data from the CONCORD-2 and CONCORD-3 studies using an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach. The…
Global | Health Outcomes | Priority Setting/Ethics | Microsimulation | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care -
ArticlePublication 2020Role and Contribution of Treatment and Imaging Modalities in Global Cervical Cancer Management
Using a microsimulation model of global cancer survival, this analysis estimates the impact of scaling …
Using a microsimulation model of global cancer survival, this analysis estimates the impact of scaling up treatment and imaging modalities on cervical cancer survival in 200 countries/territories. The paper evaluates the potential survival effect of scaling up treatment (chemotherapy, surgery, radiotherapy, and targeted therapy), and imaging modalities (ultrasound, x-ray, CT, MRI, PET, and single photon emission CT [SPECT]) to the mean level of high-income countries, both individually and in combination. The model estimates that global…
Global | Health Outcomes | Priority Setting/Ethics | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems -
ArticlePublication 2021Global Costs, Health Benefits, & Economic Benefits of Scaling Up Treatment and Imaging Modalities for Survival of 11 Cancers
This analysis estimated the costs and lifetime health and economic benefits of scaling up imaging …
This analysis estimated the costs and lifetime health and economic benefits of scaling up imaging and treatment modality packages on cancer survival in 200 countries/territories for patients diagnosed with one of 11 cancers (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, anus, liver, pancreas, lung, breast, cervix uteri, and prostate). Using a microsimulation model of global cancer survival, the paper evaluated the costs and health and economic benefits of scaling up packages of treatment (chemotherapy, surgery, radiotherapy, and targeted…
Global | Health Outcomes | Priority Setting/Ethics | Microsimulation | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems