Global Costs, Health Benefits, & Economic Benefits of Scaling Up Treatment and Imaging Modalities for Survival of 11 Cancers

This analysis estimated the costs and lifetime health and economic benefits of scaling up imaging and treatment modality packages on cancer survival in 200 countries/territories for patients diagnosed with one of 11 cancers (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, anus, liver, pancreas, lung, breast, cervix uteri, and prostate). Using a microsimulation model of global cancer survival, the paper evaluated the costs and health and economic benefits of scaling up packages of treatment (chemotherapy, surgery, radiotherapy, and targeted therapy), imaging modalities (ultrasound, x-ray, CT, MRI, PET, single-photon emission CT), and quality of care to the mean level of high-income countries, compared with no scale-up. Costs and benefits are presented in 2018 US$ and discounted at 3% annually. Without scale-up, the model estimates there will be 76 million cancer deaths (95% UI 73.9-78.6) globally for patients diagnosed between 2020 and 2030, with more than 70% of these deaths occurring in low- and middle-income countries. Comprehensive scale-up of treatment, imaging, and quality of care could avert 12.5% (95% UI 9.0-16.3) of these deaths, and cost an additional $232.9 billion (95% UI 85.9-422.0) between 2020 and 2030 (a 7% increase in cancer treatment costs), but produce $2.9 trillion (1.8-4.0) in lifetime economic benefits, yielding a return of $12.43 (6.47-33.23) per dollar invested. Scaling up treatment and quality of care without imaging would yield a return of $6.15 (2.66-16.71) per dollar invested and avert 7.0% (3.9-10.3) of cancer deaths worldwide.