Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2023Evaluation of Diversity of Clinical Trials Informing Health Technology Assessments in the United States: A 5-Year Analysis of Institute for Clinical and Economic Review Assessments
The study assessed the diversity of clinical trials informing assessments by the Institute for Clinical …
The study assessed the diversity of clinical trials informing assessments by the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) over five years (2017-2021). It conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 208 pivotal trials across 31 conditions. Findings revealed inadequate representation of racial/ethnic minorities and older adults, with Blacks/African Americans, American Indians/Alaska Natives, and Hispanics/Latinos being notably underrepresented. Whites, Asians, and Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islanders were adequately represented. US-based trials better represented Blacks/African Americans and Hispanics/Latinos but…
Technology Assessment | North America | Evidence Synthesis | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2023Calibration and Validation of the Colorectal Cancer and Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) Microsimulation Model Using Deep Neural Networks
This study explores the efficacy of machine learning (ML)-based emulators in calibrating complex microsimulation models, …
This study explores the efficacy of machine learning (ML)-based emulators in calibrating complex microsimulation models, using the Colorectal Cancer (CRC)-Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) model as a case study. ML algorithms, including deep neural networks (DNN), were trained and compared using data generated from the CRC-AIM model to predict various outcomes. The DNN outperformed other algorithms and efficiently predicted outcomes, reducing computational burden significantly. The calibrated CRC-AIM model demonstrated cross-model validity against established CISNET models…
Calibration/Validation | North America | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2019Estimation of Eating Disorders Prevalence by Age and Associations with Mortality in a Simulated Nationally Representative U.S. Cohort
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, …
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, and estimates the association of increased treatment coverage with ED-related mortality. Using an individual-level Markov state transition model calibrated to nationally-representative US survey data from 2007 and 2011, the authors simulated a virtual cohort of 100,000 individuals (50% male) from birth to age 40 years and modelled 4 ED diagnoses: anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, binge eating disorder, and other specified…
Calibration/Validation | North America | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Child/Nutrition | Mental Health -
ArticlePublication 2019Projected U.S. State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity and Severe Obesity
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories …
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories of body-mass index (BMI) in the United States. Self-reported BMI from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey (1993-1994 and 1999-2016) were obtained and corrected for quantile-specific self-reporting bias. Multinomial regressions were then fitted for each state and subgroup to estimate the prevalence of four BMI categories from 1990 through 2030: underweight or normal weight (BMI <25), overweight (25 to…
Calibration/Validation | North America | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants -
ArticlePublication 2022Excess Mortality and Elevated Body Weight in the U.S.
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by …
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by state and demographic subgroup. The authors developed a nationally-representative microsimulation (individual-level) model of US adults between 1999 and 2016, based on risk factor data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and body-mass index (BMI) mortality hazard ratios from a global pooling dataset. The model was calibrated to empirical all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER by state and subgroup, and…
Calibration/Validation | North America | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of COVID-19 on Cancer Diagnosis and Survival in Chile
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in …
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in Chile, using a microsimulation model of five cancers: breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach. The model simulates cancer incidence and progression, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities, and was calibrated to empirical data on monthly detected cases, stage at diagnosis, and 5-year net survival. The analysis accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on month-by-month excess mortality and…
Calibration/Validation | Latin America & Caribbean | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk -
ArticlePublication 2021Identifying Credible Sources of Health Information in Social Media: Principles and Attributes
Social media is widely used as a source of health information for the general public. …
Social media is widely used as a source of health information for the general public. The potential for information shared through social media to influence health outcomes necessitates action by social media platforms to enhance access and exposure to high-quality, science-based information. This paper summarizes the work of an independent advisory group convened by the National Academy of Medicine that deliberated and gathered information to develop a set of initial principles and attributes that could…
Decision Psychology | North America | Preferences/Values | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Culture/Society | Education/Labor | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2021Why the Backfire Effect Does Not Explain the Durability of Political Misperceptions
Previous research indicated that corrective information can sometimes provoke a so-called “backfire effect” in which …
Previous research indicated that corrective information can sometimes provoke a so-called “backfire effect” in which respondents more strongly endorsed a misperception about a controversial political or scientific issue when their beliefs or predispositions were challenged. This article shows how subsequent research and media coverage seized on this finding, distorting its generality and exaggerating its role relative to other factors in explaining the durability of political misperceptions. To the contrary, an emerging research consensus finds that…
Decision Psychology | North America | Preferences/Values | Social Determinants | Culture/Society | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2021Scientific Theory of Gist Communication and Misinformation Resistance
This article presents a framework for understanding how misinformation shapes decision-making, which has cognitive representations …
This article presents a framework for understanding how misinformation shapes decision-making, which has cognitive representations of gist at its core. The author discusses how the framework goes beyond prior work, and how it can be implemented so that valid scientific messages are more likely to be effective, remembered, and shared through social media, while misinformation is resisted. The distinction between mental representations of the rote facts of a message – its verbatim representation – and…
Decision Psychology | North America | Preferences/Values | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology