Resources Repository
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Resource PortalWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2024National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, founded in 1863, has a mission to provide …
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, founded in 1863, has a mission to provide nonpartisan, objective guidance for decision makers on policy challenges in the context of science, engineering, and medicine. NAS reports and convening activities have a wide range of impacts on policy and practice. They guide the development of federal laws and regulations, improve the effectiveness of government programs, shape the direction of research fields, and inform public knowledge and dialogue about…
Risk Analysis | Social Determinants | Injuries/Accidents | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Technology Assessment | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Global Governance | Climate/Environment | Energy/Engineering | Education/Labor | Food/Agriculture | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense | Science/Technology | Global | North America | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Policy Translation -
ArticlePublication 2021New Microsimulation Models to Inform Cervical Cancer Control
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis …
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and estimate the long-term impact of preventive interventions. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes previously used cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses, which are subjective and lack reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of model transition probabilities. We posit that new model health states and corollary transitions are universal,…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Excess Mortality and Elevated Body Weight in the U.S.
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by …
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by state and demographic subgroup. The authors developed a nationally-representative microsimulation (individual-level) model of US adults between 1999 and 2016, based on risk factor data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and body-mass index (BMI) mortality hazard ratios from a global pooling dataset. The model was calibrated to empirical all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER by state and subgroup, and…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Social Determinants | Health Outcomes | Chronic Disease/Risk | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of COVID-19 on Cancer Diagnosis and Survival in Chile
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in …
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in Chile, using a microsimulation model of five cancers: breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach. The model simulates cancer incidence and progression, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities, and was calibrated to empirical data on monthly detected cases, stage at diagnosis, and 5-year net survival. The analysis accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on month-by-month excess mortality and…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Chronic Disease/Risk | Latin America & Caribbean -
Resource PackWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2018Resource Pack: Cervical Cancer Models
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, is a collection of …
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, is a collection of models of HPV-related cervical cancer, differing in design, structure and features based on analytic objectives. In many ways, HPV and its related diseases represent a prototypical public health problem given the communicable and non-communicable nature of disease, opportunities for intervention along the entire disease spectrum (e.g., primary and secondary prevention, diagnosis, treatment), the varied ages at which interventions are targeted…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Dynamic Simulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Dynamic Simulation | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
Resource PortalWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2024MIDAS
MIDAS is a collaborative network of research scientists who use computational, statistical and mathematical models …
MIDAS is a collaborative network of research scientists who use computational, statistical and mathematical models to understand infectious disease dynamics and thereby assist the nation to prepare for, detect and respond to infectious disease threats. Midas focuses on research topics such as: Dynamics of emergence and spread of pathogens; Identification and surveillance of infectious diseases; Effectiveness and consequences of intervention strategies; Host/pathogen interactions; Ecological, climatic, economic and evolutionary dimensions of infectious diseases; The roles of behavior and behavioral adaptation in…
Risk Analysis | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Dynamic Simulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Technology Assessment | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Climate/Environment | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Conceptual Mapping | Quantitative Literacy -
Lesson/ModulePublication, Teaching Resource 2016Surviving the Surge
This case study explores the experiences of three Manhattan-based hospitals during Superstorm Sandy in 2012. …
This case study explores the experiences of three Manhattan-based hospitals during Superstorm Sandy in 2012. It focuses on decisions made by each institution, as Sandy approached, about whether to shelter-in-place or evacuate hundreds of medically fragile patients, and how each of the three hospitals took a different approach, informed by differing perceptions of risk and related factors. The case will be useful for public health students and administrators in understanding decision-making in settings of an…
Risk Analysis | Social Determinants | Injuries/Accidents | Decision Analysis | Environmental Health | Business/Industry | Climate/Environment | Health/Medicine | North America | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership -
ArticlePublication 2013Validation and Calibration of a Simulation Model of Pediatric HIV Infection
The authors developed a microsimulation model of pediatric HIV disease progression using the Cost-Effectiveness of …
The authors developed a microsimulation model of pediatric HIV disease progression using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model framework. This CEPAC-Pediatric model was then validated by varying CD4 data and comparing the corresponding model-generated survival curves to empirical survival curves obtained from the International Epidemiologic Database to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA). The model was calibrated to other African countries by systematically varying immunologic and HIV mortality-related input parameters. In the calibration analyses, the model-generated…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa