Validation and Calibration of a Simulation Model of Pediatric HIV Infection
2013
The authors developed a microsimulation model of pediatric HIV disease progression using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model framework. This CEPAC-Pediatric model was then validated by varying CD4 data and comparing the corresponding model-generated survival curves to empirical survival curves obtained from the International Epidemiologic Database to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA). The model was calibrated to other African countries by systematically varying immunologic and HIV mortality-related input parameters. In the calibration analyses, the model-generated survival curves were compared against UNAIDS data.
The findings indicated that the model-generated survival curves fit the IeDEA data well (survival at 16 months was 91.2% and 91.1%, respectively). The calibration analyses showed that increases in IeDEA-derived mortality risks were necessary to fit the UNAIDS survival data.
Based on these results, the authors conclude that the CEPAC-Pediatric model is internally valid and that the increases in modeled mortality risks that were required to match the UNAIDS data highlight the importance of pre-enrollment mortality in many pediatric cohort studies.
Validation and Calibration of a Simulation Model of Pediatric HIV Infection
Source:
Ciaranello AL, Morris B, Walensky R et al. Validation and Calibration of a Computer Simulation Model of Pediatric HIV Infection. PLOS One 2013; 8 (12): e83389. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083389