Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2007Multiparameter Calibration of a Natural History Model of Cervical Cancer
This paper presents a two-step approach to model calibration of a comprehensive natural history model …
This paper presents a two-step approach to model calibration of a comprehensive natural history model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer. Using primary epidemiologic data from a longitudinal study of women in Brazil, a plausible range for each input parameter was identified that would produce model output within the 95% confidence intervals of the data. The authors then performed a simultaneous search over all input parameters to identify parameter sets that produced output consistent…
Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2002Empirically Calibrated Model of Hepatitis C Virus Infection in the United States
This article presents an epidemiologic model of hepatitis C in the United States. The authors …
This article presents an epidemiologic model of hepatitis C in the United States. The authors used empirical calibration of model parameters to gain insights into uncertainty in the natural history of hepatitis C and to improve future projections. The authors identified model inputs by way of a systematic review. Model simulations were conducted and model predictions were compared with epidemiologic data on infection prevalence and mortality from liver cancer. Goodness-of-fit criteria were used to identify…
Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2023Benefits and Costs of COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates
Written mid-pandemic, this article evaluates the direct costs and health benefits of requiring COVID-19 vaccinations …
Written mid-pandemic, this article evaluates the direct costs and health benefits of requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for U.S. federal employees and healthcare and private sector workers. These mandates were controversial and some were halted by litigation. If they had been implemented as intended, the net benefits would depend on the course of the pandemic. If a more transmissible variant (such as Omicron) emerges, the net benefits may be large. If the pandemic instead fades, the benefits…
Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2022Early HPV Natural History Transitions
Microsimulation models used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of novel cervical cancer screening technologies rely on …
Microsimulation models used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of novel cervical cancer screening technologies rely on accurate transition risks for human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, persistence (or absence of HPV clearance), progression to precancerous lesions, and invasion. To inform the refinement of such models, we compared the early natural history of HPV types using prospective data from immunocompetent women in the Guanacaste Natural History Study, the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study, and the Costa Rica HPV Vaccine Trial. We…
Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | North America | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2019Estimation of Eating Disorders Prevalence by Age and Associations with Mortality in a Simulated Nationally Representative U.S. Cohort
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, …
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, and estimates the association of increased treatment coverage with ED-related mortality. Using an individual-level Markov state transition model calibrated to nationally-representative US survey data from 2007 and 2011, the authors simulated a virtual cohort of 100,000 individuals (50% male) from birth to age 40 years and modelled 4 ED diagnoses: anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, binge eating disorder, and other specified…
Mental Health | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Child/Nutrition | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of COVID-19 on Cancer Diagnosis and Survival in Chile
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in …
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in Chile, using a microsimulation model of five cancers: breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach. The model simulates cancer incidence and progression, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities, and was calibrated to empirical data on monthly detected cases, stage at diagnosis, and 5-year net survival. The analysis accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on month-by-month excess mortality and…
Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2019Cost-Effectiveness of Latent TB Screening before Immigration to Low-Incidence Countries
Despite prospective migrants to countries where the incidence of TB is low receiving TB screening …
Despite prospective migrants to countries where the incidence of TB is low receiving TB screening for active infections, screening for latent TB infection before immigration is rare. The authors used discrete event simulation to evaluate the cost-effectiveness preimmigration latent TB infection screening for migrants to low-incidence countries. They calculated cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained for migrants from countries with different TB incidences. Their analysis when combined with research on sustainability, acceptability, and program implementation can…
Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Simulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticleWeb Portal 2017PLoS Collection: Prevention, Diagnosis and Treatment of Sexually Transmitted Infections
Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that more than one million new sexually transmitted …
Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that more than one million new sexually transmitted infections (STIs) occur each day, incurring a very substantial burden of morbidity, mortality and additional infections. The pathogens responsible include bacteria, parasites and viruses, and intensive research is needed to address the substantial barriers to diagnosis and treatment of STIs, and the behavioral challenges of prevention. This PLOS collection, published in collaboration with WHO, focuses on global policy and systems…
Dynamic Transmission | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2017Cost-Effectiveness of Testing and Treatment for Latent TB
Testing for and treating latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is among the main strategies to achieve …
Testing for and treating latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is among the main strategies to achieve TB elimination in the United States. This analysis estimated health outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of LTBI testing and treatment among non-US born residents with and without medical comorbidities (e.g., diabetes, HIV infection, and end-stage renal disease). A decision analytic tree and Markov cohort simulation model was used to compare the following strategies: no testing, tuberculin skin test (TST), interferon gamma release assay…
Infectious Diseases | Test Performance | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global | North America