Early HPV Natural History Transitions
2022
Microsimulation models used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of novel cervical cancer screening technologies rely on accurate transition risks for human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, persistence (or absence of HPV clearance), progression to precancerous lesions, and invasion. To inform the refinement of such models, we compared the early natural history of HPV types using prospective data from immunocompetent women in the Guanacaste Natural History Study, the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study, and the Costa Rica HPV Vaccine Trial. We used survival approaches accounting for interval-censoring to estimate the time to clearance distribution for 20,529 new HPV infections that did not show evidence of high-grade cervical abnormalities during follow-up. Time to clearance was similar across HPV types and risk classes, as well as age groups. Similar time to clearance across HPV types suggests that relative prevalence can predict relative incidence, which has important implications for estimating health decision model transitions.
Early HPV Natural History Transitions
Source:
Adebamowo SN, Befano B, Cheung LC, Rodriguez AC, Demarco M, Rydzak G, Chen X, Porras C, Herrero R, Kim JJ, Castle PE, Wentzensen N, Kreimer AR, Schiffman M, Campos NG. Different Human Papillomavirus Types Share Early Natural History Transitions in Immunocompetent Women. International Journal of Cancer 2022; 151: 920-929. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.34128
Not open access.