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Brief/PerspectivePodcast, Teaching Resource 2014Risk and Reason Podcasts
This podcast series focuses on how we interpret and communicate probability and uncertainty, produced by All Things …
This podcast series focuses on how we interpret and communicate probability and uncertainty, produced by All Things Considered, NPR. Series podcasts: How Well Does a Drug Work? Look Beyond the Fine Print (~6 min) For Better Treatment, Doctors and Patients Share the Decisions (~9 min) Confusion with A Chance of Clarity: Your Weather Questions, Answered (~2 min) In Facing National Security Dilemmas, CIA Puts Probabilities into Words (~7 min) Pop Quiz: 20 Percent Chance of Rain. Do…
Clinical Care | Decision Psychology | Probability/Bayes | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Quantitative Literacy -
Brief/PerspectivePodcast, Teaching Resource 2014How Well Does a Drug Work? Look Beyond the Fine Print
The FDA not only approves drugs; it also approves the prescribing instructions that come along …
The FDA not only approves drugs; it also approves the prescribing instructions that come along with them. For some drugs, the wad of paper filled with fine print about the risks and benefits of using the drug is accompanied by a medication guide that is supposed to summarize the main points. This podcast is about two physicians who have been working on fact boxes for drugs that would more concisely convey a medicine's benefits and…
Clinical Care | Decision Psychology | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Quantitative Literacy -
Brief/PerspectivePodcast, Teaching Resource 2014For Better Treatment, Doctors and Patients Share the Decisions
This podcast is about the use of words used by doctors such as “very small risk, …
This podcast is about the use of words used by doctors such as “very small risk, very unlikely, very rare, very likely, and high risk.” One investigator found that only about 20 percent of physicians surveyed stated they were comfortable using numbers and explaining probabilities to patients. Moreover, patients might interpret that word to represent a very different probability. The interview engaged two physicians who sought to improve the involvement of shared decision-making with patients by…
Clinical Care | Decision Psychology | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Quantitative Literacy -
Brief/PerspectivePodcast, Teaching Resource 2014Confusion with a Chance of Clarity: Your Weather Questions, Answered
Many NPR listeners and readers felt a concise explanation of “a 20 percent chance of …
Many NPR listeners and readers felt a concise explanation of “a 20 percent chance of rain” was missing from the story and podcast about weather forecasts and probability. NPR’s Robert Siegel followed up with two meteorologists for clarity. From meteorologist Eli Jacks, of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service: “There's a 20 percent chance that at least one-hundredth of an inch of rain – and we call that measurable amounts of rain – will…
Clinical Care | Decision Psychology | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Quantitative Literacy -
Brief/PerspectivePodcast, Teaching Resource 2014In Facing National Security Dilemmas, CIA Puts Probabilities into Words
In 2011, when President Obama was presented with circumstantial evidence of Osama bin Laden's whereabouts, …
In 2011, when President Obama was presented with circumstantial evidence of Osama bin Laden's whereabouts, he faced a range of estimates — anywhere from 30 to 95 percent that the man spotted in the compound was actually bin Laden. In this new installment in a series on the intersection of risks and probabilities, Obama's national security quandary takes center stage. Access Podcast: In Facing National Security Dilemmas, CIA Puts Probabilities into Words (~7 min) Access Transcript:…
Clinical Care | Decision Psychology | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Quantitative Literacy -
Brief/PerspectivePodcast, Teaching Resource 2014What the Odds Fail to Capture When a Health Crisis Hits
How well do we understand and act on probabilities that something will happen? A 30 …
How well do we understand and act on probabilities that something will happen? A 30 percent chance of this or an 80 percent chance of that? As it turns out, making decisions based on the odds can be an extremely difficult thing to do, even for people who study the science of how we make decisions. Brian Zikmund-Fisher teaches about risk and probability at the University of Michigan School of Public Health. Back in 1998, when he…
Clinical Care | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Decision Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 1989Words or Numbers? The Evaluation of Probability Expressions in General Practice
A sample of 56 general practitioners were asked to rate, on a percentage scale, 23 …
A sample of 56 general practitioners were asked to rate, on a percentage scale, 23 words or phrases which denote frequency or likelihood. The hypothetical context of the exercise was that of communicating to patients the probability of a side-effect (headache) arising from an unspecified prescription medicine. Median phrase ratings ranged from “never” at 0% to “certain” at 95% with a 50% rating given to the phrase “reasonable chance.” Despite relatively large variance in ratings…
Clinical Care | Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology
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