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ArticlePublication 1986How Medical Professionals Evaluate Expressions of Probability
Qualitative expressions of probability, such as "likely," have different numerical meanings to different people, which …
Qualitative expressions of probability, such as "likely," have different numerical meanings to different people, which can lead to misunderstanding among physicians and between physicians and patients. In a study conducted through a nationwide interactive computer network based at Massachusetts General Hospital, the authors gathered information on the meaning of common expressions of probability. Three groups of medical professionals assigned percentage values to 12 expressions of the probability that a given symptom would appear in a…
Probability/Bayes -
Brief/PerspectivePodcast, Teaching Resource 2014Risk and Reason Podcasts
This podcast series focuses on how we interpret and communicate probability and uncertainty, produced by All Things …
This podcast series focuses on how we interpret and communicate probability and uncertainty, produced by All Things Considered, NPR. Series podcasts: How Well Does a Drug Work? Look Beyond the Fine Print (~6 min) For Better Treatment, Doctors and Patients Share the Decisions (~9 min) Confusion with A Chance of Clarity: Your Weather Questions, Answered (~2 min) In Facing National Security Dilemmas, CIA Puts Probabilities into Words (~7 min) Pop Quiz: 20 Percent Chance of Rain. Do…
Decision Psychology | Probability/Bayes | Clinical Care | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Quantitative Literacy -
Brief/PerspectivePodcast, Teaching Resource 2014How Well Does a Drug Work? Look Beyond the Fine Print
The FDA not only approves drugs; it also approves the prescribing instructions that come along …
The FDA not only approves drugs; it also approves the prescribing instructions that come along with them. For some drugs, the wad of paper filled with fine print about the risks and benefits of using the drug is accompanied by a medication guide that is supposed to summarize the main points. This podcast is about two physicians who have been working on fact boxes for drugs that would more concisely convey a medicine's benefits and…
Decision Psychology | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Clinical Care | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Quantitative Literacy -
Brief/PerspectivePodcast, Teaching Resource 2014For Better Treatment, Doctors and Patients Share the Decisions
This podcast is about the use of words used by doctors such as “very small risk, …
This podcast is about the use of words used by doctors such as “very small risk, very unlikely, very rare, very likely, and high risk.” One investigator found that only about 20 percent of physicians surveyed stated they were comfortable using numbers and explaining probabilities to patients. Moreover, patients might interpret that word to represent a very different probability. The interview engaged two physicians who sought to improve the involvement of shared decision-making with patients by…
Decision Psychology | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Clinical Care | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Quantitative Literacy -
Brief/PerspectivePodcast, Teaching Resource 2014Confusion with a Chance of Clarity: Your Weather Questions, Answered
Many NPR listeners and readers felt a concise explanation of “a 20 percent chance of …
Many NPR listeners and readers felt a concise explanation of “a 20 percent chance of rain” was missing from the story and podcast about weather forecasts and probability. NPR’s Robert Siegel followed up with two meteorologists for clarity. From meteorologist Eli Jacks, of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service: “There's a 20 percent chance that at least one-hundredth of an inch of rain – and we call that measurable amounts of rain – will…
Decision Psychology | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Clinical Care | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Quantitative Literacy -
Brief/PerspectivePodcast, Teaching Resource 2014In Facing National Security Dilemmas, CIA Puts Probabilities into Words
In 2011, when President Obama was presented with circumstantial evidence of Osama bin Laden's whereabouts, …
In 2011, when President Obama was presented with circumstantial evidence of Osama bin Laden's whereabouts, he faced a range of estimates — anywhere from 30 to 95 percent that the man spotted in the compound was actually bin Laden. In this new installment in a series on the intersection of risks and probabilities, Obama's national security quandary takes center stage. Access Podcast: In Facing National Security Dilemmas, CIA Puts Probabilities into Words (~7 min) Access Transcript:…
Decision Psychology | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Clinical Care | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Quantitative Literacy -
Brief/PerspectivePodcast, Teaching Resource 2014Pop Quiz: 20% Chance of Rain. Do You Need an Umbrella?
This podcast episode explores how people interpret probability. One of the most common encounters with percent probabilities …
This podcast episode explores how people interpret probability. One of the most common encounters with percent probabilities has to do with weather. Take a moment to consider the question below. It comes from a survey developed by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research who were researching how people understand weather forecasts. Tomorrow's forecast calls for a "20 percent chance of rain." Which of the options below do you think best describes what that means? A.) It…
Probability/Bayes | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Quantitative Literacy -
Brief/PerspectivePodcast, Teaching Resource 2014What the Odds Fail to Capture When a Health Crisis Hits
How well do we understand and act on probabilities that something will happen? A 30 …
How well do we understand and act on probabilities that something will happen? A 30 percent chance of this or an 80 percent chance of that? As it turns out, making decisions based on the odds can be an extremely difficult thing to do, even for people who study the science of how we make decisions. Brian Zikmund-Fisher teaches about risk and probability at the University of Michigan School of Public Health. Back in 1998, when he…
Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Decision Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 1989Quantitative Meanings of Verbal Probability Expressions
In this article, the meanings of 18 verbal probability expressions were studied in 3 ways: …
In this article, the meanings of 18 verbal probability expressions were studied in 3 ways: (1) frequency distributions of what single number best represented each expression; (2) word-to-number acceptability functions from what range of numbers from 0% to 100% best represented each expression; and (3) number-to-word acceptability functions from which expressions were appropriate for multiples of 5% from 5% to 95%. The results agreed highly with others and were highly consistent across methods. Expressions incorporating…
Probability/Bayes | Culture/Society | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 1990Quantifying Probabilistic Expressions
In this article, authors synthesized 20 different studies to provide numerical averages of opinions on quantitative …
In this article, authors synthesized 20 different studies to provide numerical averages of opinions on quantitative meanings of 52 qualitative probabilistic expressions. These were obtained from people with differing occupations, such as students, physicians, other medical workers, and science writers. The stem probability with modifiers gives a substantial range 6% to 91% and the stem chance might do as well if tried with very. The stems frequent, probable, likely, and often with modifiers produce roughly equivalent sets…
Probability/Bayes | Culture/Society -
ArticlePublication 2018If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?
People use imprecise words to describe the chance of events all the time — “It’s …
People use imprecise words to describe the chance of events all the time — “It’s likely to rain,” or “There’s a real possibility they’ll launch before us,” or “It’s doubtful the nurses will strike.” Not only are such probabilistic terms subjective, but they also can have widely different interpretations. One person’s “pretty likely” is another’s “far from certain.” Sherman Kent mapped the relationship between words and probabilities. In the best-known version, he showed sentences that…
Probability/Bayes | Culture/Society -
Online LearningWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2018Fat Chance: Probability from the Ground Up
This is an introductory edX course in probability. Created specifically for those who are new …
This is an introductory edX course in probability. Created specifically for those who are new to the study of probability, or for those who are seeking an approachable review of core concepts prior to enrolling in a college-level statistics course, this course develops a mathematical mode of thought over rote memorization of terms and formulae. Through visual lessons and guided practice, this course explores the quantitative reasoning behind probability and the cumulative nature of mathematics…
Probability/Bayes | Middle School | High School | College | Quantitative Literacy -
Online LearningVideo, Teaching Resource 2023Khan Videos: Conditional Probability
These three videos, produced by Khan Academy, focus on conditional probability. Conditional probability with Bayes' …
These three videos, produced by Khan Academy, focus on conditional probability. Conditional probability with Bayes' Theorem (~5 min). Created by Brit Cruise, this video presents conditional probability visually using trees. Conditional probability and independence (~4 min). This video uses conditional probability to see if events are independent or not. Conditional probability tree diagram (~11 min). This video uses a tree diagram to work out the following conditional probability question: If someone fails a drug test, what is the…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | High School | College | Graduate | Quantitative Literacy -
GlossaryPublication, Teaching Resource 2022Glossary: Probability Revision and Bayes
This glossary of terms supports the teaching pack on Probability Revision and Bayes, in which students …
This glossary of terms supports the teaching pack on Probability Revision and Bayes, in which students are introduced to the implications of imperfect information, acquire a conceptual understanding of Bayes Theorem, and gain practical skills in performing probability revision. In addition to the glossary, materials include an instructor's note, videos, companion slides, an annotated bibliography, sample exercises, and additional support. Glossary of Terms Bayes' rule/Bayes formula Conditional probability Expected value False negatives (FN) False positives…
Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Decision Analysis | Environmental Health | Policy/Regulation | Climate/Environment | Health/Medicine | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 1989Words or Numbers? The Evaluation of Probability Expressions in General Practice
A sample of 56 general practitioners were asked to rate, on a percentage scale, 23 …
A sample of 56 general practitioners were asked to rate, on a percentage scale, 23 words or phrases which denote frequency or likelihood. The hypothetical context of the exercise was that of communicating to patients the probability of a side-effect (headache) arising from an unspecified prescription medicine. Median phrase ratings ranged from “never” at 0% to “certain” at 95% with a 50% rating given to the phrase “reasonable chance.” Despite relatively large variance in ratings…
Probability/Bayes | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2020Interpretation of Dutch Articles Probability Phrases - Miscommunication Risk
Probabilities and risks play a crucial role in science communication. Doctors inform their patients about …
Probabilities and risks play a crucial role in science communication. Doctors inform their patients about the probability of a successful treatment and the risks of side-effects. Climate researchers want to convey the probability of different climate change scenarios. Science journalists report on estimated probabilities and risks in many different fields. Every day, people make decisions based on these probabilities and risks. Due to this dependence of the decision maker on the information provider, it is…
Probability/Bayes | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
VideoMultimedia, Teaching Resource 2018Probabilities and Odds: Teaching Prototype
In this video, Professor Myriam Hunink emphasizes the importance of uncertainty in the context of …
In this video, Professor Myriam Hunink emphasizes the importance of uncertainty in the context of decision making in clinical medicine and health policy. Using the example of a 55-year-old woman with exertional chest pain, she poses the question, what is the chance, or probability, that she has underlying coronary artery disease, and how does that relate to our decision making process? Access the video. Probabilities and Odds: Teaching Prototype (~6 min) Students learn that odds and probability…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | North America | Europe | High School | College | Graduate | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
Lesson/ModuleWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2016DNA Evidence: Case Study in Probabilities
This educational module on DNA evidence presents trial testimony, exhibits, and opinions in a case …
This educational module on DNA evidence presents trial testimony, exhibits, and opinions in a case in which federal courts at every level discerned “inaccuracies” in the testimony of a leading expert about probabilities associated with the DNA evidence. By embedding these legal materials in background explanations, critical questions, and short problems, the module supports self-study and class discussions that together can elucidate key principles in scientific reasoning and quantitative analysis and that can help students…
Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Risk Analysis | Injuries/Accidents | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | North America | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 1967Empirical Scaling of Common Numerical Probabilities Verbal Phrases
Probability theory is one tool we use to deal with the uncertainty of future events. …
Probability theory is one tool we use to deal with the uncertainty of future events. The result of a probability calculation of an event that has not yet occurred is a number varying from 0 to 1. This number expresses the likelihood of that event occurring. There are many verbal phrases that also are used to express intuitively the notion of the likelihood of an event. One hundred eighty-eight subjects were given numerical probability estimates…
Probability/Bayes | Culture/Society | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2019Verbal Probabilities: Very Likely to Be Somewhat More Confusing Than Numbers
People interpret verbal expressions of probabilities (e.g. “very likely”) in different ways, yet words are …
People interpret verbal expressions of probabilities (e.g. “very likely”) in different ways, yet words are commonly preferred to numbers when communicating uncertainty. Simply providing numerical translations alongside reports or text containing verbal probabilities should encourage consistency, but these guidelines are often ignored. In an online experiment with 924 participants, the authors compared four different formats for presenting verbal probabilities with the numerical guidelines used in the US Intelligence Community Directive 203 to see whether any…
Probability/Bayes | Climate/Environment | Culture/Society
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