In Facing National Security Dilemmas, CIA Puts Probabilities into Words
2014
In 2011, when President Obama was presented with circumstantial evidence of Osama bin Laden's whereabouts, he faced a range of estimates — anywhere from 30 to 95 percent that the man spotted in the compound was actually bin Laden. In this new installment in a series on the intersection of risks and probabilities, Obama's national security quandary takes center stage.
- Access Podcast: In Facing National Security Dilemmas, CIA Puts Probabilities into Words (~7 min)
- Access Transcript: In Facing National Security Dilemmas, CIA Puts Probabilities into Words
This podcast was one of six in a series that focused on how we interpret and communicate probability and uncertainty, produced by All Things Considered, NPR.
Extracted from accompanying podcast description.
In Facing National Security Dilemmas, CIA Puts Probabilities into Words
Source:
Siegel R. In Facing National Security Dilemmas, CIA Puts Probabilities into Words. All Things Considered, NPR 2014; Jul 23. https://www.npr.org/2014/07/23/334494673/in-facing-national-security-dilemmas-cia-puts-probabilities-into-words