Resource Pack: Expressing Probability: Words or Numbers?
2022
People interpret verbal expressions of probabilities (e.g. “very likely”) in different ways, yet words are commonly preferred to numbers when communicating uncertainty. This resource pack is a collection of articles, tools, and media focused on how we estimate and communicate uncertainty and probability. Many of the resources were chosen to specifically highlight the correlation between qualitative expressions (terms or phrases) of probability such as "likely," “almost certainly,” “very unlikely,” “infrequently,” etc. We included select classic early papers and recent papers and media from a variety of fields.
This resource pack does not address heuristics and biases associated with estimating probability and/or revising probability using Bayes theorem. Please see this resource packs on these topics, if interested:
Resource Pack: Diagnostic Tests, Bayes, and COVID-19. Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health 2021. https://repository.chds.hsph.harvard.edu/repository/collection/resource-pack-diagnostic-tests-bayes-and-covid-19
Click here to download a PDF document of this complete pack
Source:
Resource Pack: Expressing Probability: Words or Numbers? Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health 2022. https://repository.chds.hsph.harvard.edu/repository/collection/resource-pack-probability