Confusion with a Chance of Clarity: Your Weather Questions, Answered
2014
Many NPR listeners and readers felt a concise explanation of “a 20 percent chance of rain” was missing from the story and podcast about weather forecasts and probability. NPR’s Robert Siegel followed up with two meteorologists for clarity.
From meteorologist Eli Jacks, of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service: “There's a 20 percent chance that at least one-hundredth of an inch of rain – and we call that measurable amounts of rain – will fall at any specific point in a forecast area.”
From chief meteorologist Jason Samenow, with The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang: “It simply means for any locations for which the 20 percent chance of rain applies, measurable rain (more than a trace) would be expected to fall in two of every 10 weather situations like it.”
- Access Podcast: Confusion with a Chance of Clarity: Your Weather Questions, Answered (~2 min)
- Access Transcript: Confusion with a Chance of Clarity: Your Weather Questions, Answered
This podcast was one of six in a series that focused on how we interpret and communicate probability and uncertainty, produced by All Things Considered, NPR.
Adapted from accompanying podcast description.
Confusion with a Chance of Clarity: Your Weather Questions, Answered
Source:
Siegel R. Confusion with A Chance of Clarity: Your Weather Questions, Answered. All Things Considered, NPR 2014; Jul 23. https://www.npr.org/2014/07/23/334494729/confusion-with-a-chance-of-clarity-your-weather-questions-answered