Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2019Projected U.S. State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity and Severe Obesity
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories …
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories of body-mass index (BMI) in the United States. Self-reported BMI from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey (1993-1994 and 1999-2016) were obtained and corrected for quantile-specific self-reporting bias. Multinomial regressions were then fitted for each state and subgroup to estimate the prevalence of four BMI categories from 1990 through 2030: underweight or normal weight (BMI <25), overweight (25 to…
Calibration/Validation | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | North America -
ArticlePublication 2020Impact of Treatment and Imaging Modalities on 5-Year Net Survival of 11 Cancers in 200 Countries
This analysis describes the development of a microsimulation model of stage-specific cancer survival in 200 …
This analysis describes the development of a microsimulation model of stage-specific cancer survival in 200 countries/territories for 11 cancers (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, anus, liver, pancreas, lung, breast, cervix uteri, and prostate). The paper estimated current 5-year net survival for diagnosed cancers in each country and potential survival gains from increasing the availability of individual treatment and imaging modalities, and more comprehensive packages of scale-up. Global 5-year net survival for all 11 cancers (combined) is…
Calibration/Validation | Health Outcomes | Priority Setting/Ethics | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Excess Mortality and Elevated Body Weight in the U.S.
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by …
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by state and demographic subgroup. The authors developed a nationally-representative microsimulation (individual-level) model of US adults between 1999 and 2016, based on risk factor data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and body-mass index (BMI) mortality hazard ratios from a global pooling dataset. The model was calibrated to empirical all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER by state and subgroup, and…
Calibration/Validation | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of COVID-19 on Cancer Diagnosis and Survival in Chile
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in …
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in Chile, using a microsimulation model of five cancers: breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach. The model simulates cancer incidence and progression, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities, and was calibrated to empirical data on monthly detected cases, stage at diagnosis, and 5-year net survival. The analysis accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on month-by-month excess mortality and…
Calibration/Validation | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of Treatment and Imaging Modalities on Global Breast Cancer Survival
This analysis used a microsimulation model of global cancer survival to simulate 5-year net survival …
This analysis used a microsimulation model of global cancer survival to simulate 5-year net survival for women with newly diagnosed breast cancer in 200 countries/territories in 2018, accounting for the availability and stage-specific survival impact of specific treatment modalities (chemotherapy, radiotherapy, surgery, and targeted therapy), imaging modalities (ultrasound, x-ray, CT, MRI, PET, and single-photon emission computed tomography [SPECT]), and quality of cancer care. The model was calibrated to empirical data on 5-year net breast cancer…
Calibration/Validation | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Global -
Tools/ModelsWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2019Australia & New Zealand Health Intervention Interactive League Table
This interactive league table contains more than 800 Australian and New Zealand evaluations of public …
This interactive league table contains more than 800 Australian and New Zealand evaluations of public health intervention impacts on health gains (in quality/disability/health adjusted life years), health system costs and cost effectiveness. It allows users (policy-makers, researchers, health professionals, general public) to compare the health gains and costs associated with different interventions. The web portal provides access to a Users Guide and a Plain Language Summary of how to interpret table and graph outputs. Read the research…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Outcomes | Priority Setting/Ethics | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Mental Health | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Asia & Pacific | Oceania | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Graphics/Visualization -
ArticlePublication 2022Priority Setting in Early Childhood Development: An Analytical Framework
Early childhood development (ECD) sets the foundation for healthy and successful lives with important consequences …
Early childhood development (ECD) sets the foundation for healthy and successful lives with important consequences for education, labor market outcomes, and other domains of well-being. Even though many ECD interventions are implemented and evaluated globally, there is currently no standardized framework for comparing these interventions’ relative cost-effectiveness. The investigators developed an economic evaluation framework that focuses on the immediate impact of ECD interventions targeting motor, cognitive, language, and socioemotional skills. They applied the framework to compute…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Decision Analysis | Priority Setting/Ethics | Child/Nutrition | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Potential Distributional Health & Financial Benefits of Increased Tobacco Taxes in Ethiopia: Findings from a Modeling Study
This study evaluates the potential impacts of Ethiopia's tobacco tax increase in 2020, which raised …
This study evaluates the potential impacts of Ethiopia's tobacco tax increase in 2020, which raised cigarette prices by approximately 67%. Employing parameters such as price elasticity of demand and smoking prevalence, the analysis utilizes existing literature and secondary data to model the effects of the reform on various outcomes, focusing on life years, tax revenues, cigarette expenditures, and catastrophic health expenditures (CHE). Concentrating solely on male smokers due to low female smoking rates, the results…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2022Child Health Inequity through Case Management of Under-Five Malaria in Nigeria: An ECEA
This study assesses the potential impact of subsidies covering the direct and indirect costs of …
This study assesses the potential impact of subsidies covering the direct and indirect costs of under-five malaria case management in Nigeria, utilizing an extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) and a decision tree model. Findings reveal that fully subsidizing medical, non-medical, and indirect costs could annually avert over 19,000 under-five deaths, 8,600 cases of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE), and US$187 million in out-of-pocket (OOP) spending. Per US$1 million invested, this translates to a significant reduction in under-five…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa