Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2013Validation and Calibration of a Simulation Model of Pediatric HIV Infection
The authors developed a microsimulation model of pediatric HIV disease progression using the Cost-Effectiveness of …
The authors developed a microsimulation model of pediatric HIV disease progression using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model framework. This CEPAC-Pediatric model was then validated by varying CD4 data and comparing the corresponding model-generated survival curves to empirical survival curves obtained from the International Epidemiologic Database to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA). The model was calibrated to other African countries by systematically varying immunologic and HIV mortality-related input parameters. In the calibration analyses, the model-generated…
Calibration/Validation | Child/Nutrition | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
BookPublication 2013Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools, 3rd Edition
Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools® is a new edition and teaches the fundamental ideas …
Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools® is a new edition and teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in decision analysis. This new version has been purposefully written to be more relevant to students in business and engineering compared to previous versions. This new version also incorporates and implements the powerful DecisionTools® software by Palisade Corporation. At the end of each chapter, topics are illustrated with step-by-step instructions…
Policy/Regulation | Decision Analysis | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Test Performance | Value of Information | Microsimulation | Business/Industry | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense | Science/Technology | Global | North America | Europe -
ReviewPublication 2013Valuing the Economic Benefits of Complex Interventions
This is a review of economic evaluations of complex health interventions. Complex interventions, involving interlinked …
This is a review of economic evaluations of complex health interventions. Complex interventions, involving interlinked packages of care, challenge the application of current methods of economic evaluation that focus on measuring only health gain. The authors find that complex interventions may be problematic on two levels. First, the complexity means the intervention may not fit into one of the current appraisal systems, and/or second, maximizing health is not the only objective. This paper discusses the…
Policy/Regulation | Decision Analysis | Preferences/Values | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Europe -
GuidelinesPublication 2013Decision and Simulation Modeling in Systematic Reviews
The purpose of this review is to provide guidance for determining when incorporating a decision-analytic …
The purpose of this review is to provide guidance for determining when incorporating a decision-analytic model alongside a systemic review would be of added value for decision making purposes. The purpose of systematic reviews is to synthesize the current scientific literature on a particular topic in the form of evidence reports and technology assessments to assist public and private organizations in developing strategies that improve the quality of health care and decision making. However, there…
Child/Nutrition | Decision Analysis | Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | North America -
ReviewPublication 2012Applying Decision Science to Managing National Forests
This publication is an example of the application of decision science to the management of …
This publication is an example of the application of decision science to the management of federal public forests, in particular to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations. Through three case studies, the authors describe four stages of a decision analytic approach: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring…
Policy/Regulation | Decision Analysis | Value of Information | Risk Analysis | Social Determinants | Environmental Health | Climate/Environment | Government/Law -
BookPublication 2010Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Professional Judgment
This book includes material drawn from statistics, decision science, social and cognitive psychology, the judgment …
This book includes material drawn from statistics, decision science, social and cognitive psychology, the judgment and decision making literature, and behavioral economics. It combines quantitative approaches to empirical analysis and decision making (i.e., statistics and decision science) with the psychological literature illustrating the systematic errors of the intuitive decision maker.
Policy/Regulation | Decision Analysis | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Priority Setting/Ethics | Test Performance | Value of Information | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global | North America -
ArticlePublication 2009Cost-Effectiveness of Rotavirus Vaccination in Vietnam
This article reports on a cost-effectiveness analysis of rotavirus vaccination, including varying degrees of severity, …
This article reports on a cost-effectiveness analysis of rotavirus vaccination, including varying degrees of severity, age-dependency of clinical manifestation, and additional features of the disease (e.g., the possibility of reinfection and varying degrees of partial immunity conferred by natural infection). The authors developed a Markov model that reflects key features of rotavirus infection, using the most recent data available at the time of their analysis. They applied the model to the 2004 Vietnamese birth cohort…
Calibration/Validation | Child/Nutrition | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Asia & Pacific -
ReviewPublication 1982Decision Analysis: An Overview
This article, written for the non-decision analyst, describes what decision analysis is, what it can …
This article, written for the non-decision analyst, describes what decision analysis is, what it can and cannot do, why one should care to do this, and how one does it. Keeney describes decision analysis as "a formalization of common sense for decision problems which are too complex for informal use of common sense." He provides a more technical definition also, describing decision analysis as "a philosophy, articulated by a set of logical axioms, and a methodology…
Policy/Regulation | Decision Analysis | Decision Theory | Preferences/Values | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense | Science/Technology -
BookPublication 1980Clinical Decision Analysis
This text was conceived and developed in the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health …
This text was conceived and developed in the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health at the Center for the Analysis of Health Practices. The book had its origins in a set of classroom materials developed during the academic year 1974-75 for an elective course in medical decision making at the Harvard Medical School. In this book students are shown how to structure clinical decision problems, how to systematically formulate the intertwining roles of diagnosis and treatment, how to…
Child/Nutrition | Decision Analysis | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Test Performance | Value of Information | State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global | North America | Europe | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy