Decision Analysis: An Overview
1982
This article, written for the non-decision analyst, describes what decision analysis is, what it can and cannot do, why one should care to do this, and how one does it. Keeney describes decision analysis as "a formalization of common sense for decision problems which are too complex for informal use of common sense." He provides a more technical definition also, describing decision analysis as "a philosophy, articulated by a set of logical axioms, and a methodology and collection of systematic procedures, based upon those axioms, for responsibly analyzing the complexities inherent in decision problems."
The paper summarizes features of the decision environment and the characteristics of specific kinds of decisions that lend themselves to these analytic methods. He emphasizes that decision analysis focuses on aspects fundamental to complex decision problems, namely (1) A perceived need to accomplish some objectives, (2) Several alternatives, one of which must be selected, (3) The consequences associated with alternatives are different, (4) Uncertainty usually about the consequences of each alternative, (5) The possible consequences are not all equally valued. Keeney provides an overview of the methodology of decision analysis and discusses its foundations, procedures, history, and applications.
Decision Analysis: An Overview
Source:
Keeney RL. Decision Analysis: An Overview. Operations Research 1982; 30: 803-838. http://www.jstor.org/stable/170347
Not open access.