Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2007Multiparameter Calibration of a Natural History Model of Cervical Cancer
This paper presents a two-step approach to model calibration of a comprehensive natural history model …
This paper presents a two-step approach to model calibration of a comprehensive natural history model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer. Using primary epidemiologic data from a longitudinal study of women in Brazil, a plausible range for each input parameter was identified that would produce model output within the 95% confidence intervals of the data. The authors then performed a simultaneous search over all input parameters to identify parameter sets that produced output consistent…
Calibration/Validation | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean -
ReviewPublication 2005Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems
This review monograph was prepared in response to a request from the United States Air …
This review monograph was prepared in response to a request from the United States Air Force Research Laboratory for a study of modern decision science that would aid in its planning of research programs and, more specifically, developing methods and tools for decision support. The emphasis is on relatively high-level decisionmaking rather than, say, that of pilots or intelligence analysts in the midst of real-time operations. They focus largely on what the military refers to as…
Decision Theory | Decision Psychology | Decision Analysis | Military/Defense | North America -
ReportPublication 2003ISPOR Task Force Report: Good Practice for Decision Analytic Modeling in Health-Care
This report describes the consensus of a task force convened to provide modelers with guidelines …
This report describes the consensus of a task force convened to provide modelers with guidelines for conducting and reporting modeling studies. While published more than a decade ago, it remains a clearly written resource for thinking about how to accurately describe the components of models and their quality. Criteria for assessing the quality of models fell into three areas: model structure, data used as inputs to models, and model validation. Several major themes cut across…
Calibration/Validation | Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
BookPublication 2002Prevention Effectiveness: Guide to Decision Analysis and Economic Evaluation, 2nd Edition
This book was originally written to introduce Centers for Disease Control and Prevention staff to …
This book was originally written to introduce Centers for Disease Control and Prevention staff to the concepts of decision and economic analysis, to provide guidance on methods to maximize comparability of studios, and to provide access to frequently used reference information. It has been adapted to meet the needs of scientists and managers in state and local health departments and managed care organizations as well as students in schools of public health and clinicians for…
Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global | North America | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2002Empirically Calibrated Model of Hepatitis C Virus Infection in the United States
This article presents an epidemiologic model of hepatitis C in the United States. The authors …
This article presents an epidemiologic model of hepatitis C in the United States. The authors used empirical calibration of model parameters to gain insights into uncertainty in the natural history of hepatitis C and to improve future projections. The authors identified model inputs by way of a systematic review. Model simulations were conducted and model predictions were compared with epidemiologic data on infection prevalence and mortality from liver cancer. Goodness-of-fit criteria were used to identify…
Calibration/Validation | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | North America -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 1994Decision Theory: A Brief Introduction
Decision theory is theory about decisions. The subject is not a very unified one. To …
Decision theory is theory about decisions. The subject is not a very unified one. To the contrary, there are many different ways to theorize about decisions, and therefore also many different research traditions. This text attempts to reflect some of the diversity of the subject. This text, by Sven Ove Hansson, is a non-technical overview of modern decision theory. Its emphasis lies on the less (mathematically) technical aspects of decision theory. It is intended for university students…
Decision Theory | Preferences/Values | Economics/Finance | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Quantitative Literacy -
ReviewPublication 1982Decision Analysis: An Overview
This article, written for the non-decision analyst, describes what decision analysis is, what it can …
This article, written for the non-decision analyst, describes what decision analysis is, what it can and cannot do, why one should care to do this, and how one does it. Keeney describes decision analysis as "a formalization of common sense for decision problems which are too complex for informal use of common sense." He provides a more technical definition also, describing decision analysis as "a philosophy, articulated by a set of logical axioms, and a methodology…
Decision Theory | Preferences/Values | Decision Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense | Science/Technology -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 1980Threshold Approach to Clinical Decision Making
This classic paper provides a "tutorial" for students learning about diagnostic testing, probability revision, and …
This classic paper provides a "tutorial" for students learning about diagnostic testing, probability revision, and how to calculate thresholds for testing, treatment, and no treatment. The authors describe how a physician's estimate of the probability that a patient has a particular disease is a principal factor in the determination of whether to withhold treatment, obtain more data by testing, or treat without subjecting the patient to the risks of further diagnostic tests. Using the concepts of decision analysis,…
Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Value of Information | Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine -
BookPublication 1980Clinical Decision Analysis
This text was conceived and developed in the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health …
This text was conceived and developed in the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health at the Center for the Analysis of Health Practices. The book had its origins in a set of classroom materials developed during the academic year 1974-75 for an elective course in medical decision making at the Harvard Medical School. In this book students are shown how to structure clinical decision problems, how to systematically formulate the intertwining roles of diagnosis and treatment, how to…
Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Test Performance | Value of Information | State-Transition | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global | North America | Europe | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy