Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems
2005
This review monograph was prepared in response to a request from the United States Air Force Research Laboratory for a study of modern decision science that would aid in its planning of research programs and, more specifically, developing methods and tools for decision support. The emphasis is on relatively high-level decisionmaking rather than, say, that of pilots or intelligence analysts in the midst of real-time operations. They focus largely on what the military refers to as the strategic and operational levels.
Chapter 2 describes some of the major findings of recent decades on how real decisionmakers actually reason and decide, reflecting the “heuristics and biases” research most associated with Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, as well as the “naturalistic” research associated with Gary Klein, Gerd Gigerenzer, and others. Chapter 3 reviews classic concepts of decision science and aspects of their evolution through the 1980s. Chapter 4 discusses major themes of modern decision science. These build on the classic concepts but also repudiate the classic overemphasis on optimization, particularly in problems characterized by deep uncertainty.
The authors note that although much of the monograph is rather general, the focus is on decision science relevant to military decisionmaking, and many of the examples are accordingly military. This PDF document is made available from www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND Corporation.
Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems
Source:
Davis PK, Kulick J, Egner M. Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems. RAND Corporation 2005. https://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG360.html