Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2008Mathematical Models of Cervical Cancer Prevention in the Asia Pacific Region
This article reports on a model-based approach to estimate averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, …
This article reports on a model-based approach to estimate averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (I$/DALY averted) for vaccination of young adolescent girls against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18. The authors used population-based and epidemiologic data for 25 countries in Asia (22 GAVI-Alliance eligible countries, Thailand, China and Japan). They found that an absolute reduction in lifetime cancer risk varied across countries, depending on incidence,…
Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Science/Technology | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2008Mathematical Models of Cervical Cancer Prevention in Latin America and the Caribbean
This article reports on a model-based approach estimated averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, disability-adjusted …
This article reports on a model-based approach estimated averted cervical cancer cases and deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (I$/DALY averted) for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination of young adolescent girls using population and epidemiologic data for 33 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The authors found that an absolute reduction in lifetime cancer risk varied between countries, depending on incidence, proportion attributable to HPV-16 and 18, and population age-structure; for…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | State-Transition | Health/Medicine | Costing Methods | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Science/Technology | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2008Development of an Empirically Calibrated Model of Gastric Cancer in Two High-Risk Countries
This paper presents an empirically calibrated mathematical model of gastric cancer and H. pylori in …
This paper presents an empirically calibrated mathematical model of gastric cancer and H. pylori in China and Colombia to provide qualitative insight into the cost-effectiveness of gastric cancer prevention strategies. Despite studies that have established the relationship between Helicobacter pylori and gastric cancer and H. pylori treatment reducing cancer incidence among individuals without preexisting precancerous lesions, screening for H. pylori is still being debated. The authors synthesized…!--?xml:namespace prefix = "o" ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /-->
Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2007Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started and Evolved
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement …
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement in its development. He describes the early days of Operations Research (OR) in the late 1940s with its approach to complex, strategic decision making. After reading John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern’s Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1947) and Abraham Wald’s two books (1947, 1950), he became involved in statistical decision theory. A few years later, after reading Leonard…
Preferences/Values | Probability/Bayes | Decision Theory | Health/Medicine | Decision Analysis | Operations Research | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering -
ArticlePublication 2007Economic Evaluation of Hepatitis B Vaccination in Low-Income Countries: Cost-Effectiveness Affordability Curves
In the face of uncertainties about both the health and economic consequences of a vaccine …
In the face of uncertainties about both the health and economic consequences of a vaccine program, as well as the availability and magnitude of resources needed to fund the program, cost-effectiveness affordability curves can provide information to decision-makers about the probability that a program will be both cost-effective and affordable: these are distinct but equally relevant considerations in resource-poor settings. This paper describes the application of this method to assess a hepatitis B vaccination program in the…
Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Health/Medicine | Costing Methods | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2007Multiparameter Calibration of a Natural History Model of Cervical Cancer
This paper presents a two-step approach to model calibration of a comprehensive natural history model …
This paper presents a two-step approach to model calibration of a comprehensive natural history model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer. Using primary epidemiologic data from a longitudinal study of women in Brazil, a plausible range for each input parameter was identified that would produce model output within the 95% confidence intervals of the data. The authors then performed a simultaneous search over all input parameters to identify parameter sets that produced output consistent…
Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Latin America & Caribbean -
BookPublication 2003WHO Guide to Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
This 2003 guide provides a method of assessing the cost-effectiveness of health interventions for an …
This 2003 guide provides a method of assessing the cost-effectiveness of health interventions for an international audience. The authors aim to inform the policy maker and to maximize the generalizability of results across settings. Part I begins with a description of cost-effectiveness analysis. It then considers issues relating to study design, estimating costs, assessing health effects, discounting, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and reporting results. Part II provides examples to illustrate the principles in Part I. Detailed discussions…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Mathematical Models | Health Outcomes | Health/Medicine | Costing Methods | Evidence Synthesis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Global -
ArticlePublication 2002Empirically Calibrated Model of Hepatitis C Virus Infection in the United States
This article presents an epidemiologic model of hepatitis C in the United States. The authors …
This article presents an epidemiologic model of hepatitis C in the United States. The authors used empirical calibration of model parameters to gain insights into uncertainty in the natural history of hepatitis C and to improve future projections. The authors identified model inputs by way of a systematic review. Model simulations were conducted and model predictions were compared with epidemiologic data on infection prevalence and mortality from liver cancer. Goodness-of-fit criteria were used to identify…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | State-Transition | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | North America -
BookPublication 1996Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine, 1st Edition
In 1993, the US Public Health Service convened a panel of 13 nongovernment scientists and …
In 1993, the US Public Health Service convened a panel of 13 nongovernment scientists and scholars with expertise in economics, clinical medicine, ethics, and statistics to review the state of cost-effectiveness analysis and to develop recommendations for its conduct and use in health and medicine. Publishing their results in 1996, they proposed the most explicit set of guidelines (together with their rationale) ever defined on the conduct of CEAs. The panel recommended analysts include a "reference-case"…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Preferences/Values | Health Outcomes | Health/Medicine | Costing Methods | Evidence Synthesis | Value of Information | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | North America