Resources Repository
-
ArticlePublication 2021New Microsimulation Models to Inform Cervical Cancer Control
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis …
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and estimate the long-term impact of preventive interventions. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes previously used cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses, which are subjective and lack reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of model transition probabilities. We posit that new model health states and corollary transitions are universal,…
Calibration/Validation | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022WHO ACTION-I Trial in Low Resource Countries
This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of dexamethasone administration in dexamethasone in pregnant women at risk …
This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of dexamethasone administration in dexamethasone in pregnant women at risk of early preterm birth using data from a multicentre, randomized, placebo-controlled trial in Bangladesh, India, Kenya, Nigeria, and Pakistan. Primary cost data were collected in 28 hospitals across the 5 countries. A decision tree model was used to compare dexamethasone treatment to no intervention from a health-care sector perspective. Administration of dexamethasone averted 38 neonatal deaths per 1000 woman–baby units…
Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Child/Nutrition | Clinical Care | Global | Sub-Saharan Africa | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2019Estimating the Total Incidence of Global Childhood Cancer: A Simulation-Based Analysis
This study describes the development of a microsimulation model to simulate childhood cancer incidence for …
This study describes the development of a microsimulation model to simulate childhood cancer incidence for 200 countries/territories, taking into account trends in population growth and urbanicity, geographical variation in cancer incidence, and health system barriers to access and referral that contribute to underdiagnosis. The model was calibrated to publicly available cancer registry data, and the total incidence of childhood cancer (diagnosed and undiagnosed) was estimated for each country in 2015 and projections made to 2030.…
Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Global -
ArticlePublication 2019Global Childhood Cancer Survival Estimates and Priority-Setting: A Simulation-Based Analysis
This modelling study provides estimates of global childhood cancer survival, accounting for the impact of …
This modelling study provides estimates of global childhood cancer survival, accounting for the impact of multiple factors that affect cancer outcomes in children. The authors developed a microsimulation model to simulate childhood cancer survival for 200 countries/territories, accounting for clinical and epidemiologic factors, including country-specific treatment variables, such as availability of chemotherapy, radiation, and surgery, and calibrated the model to empirical data from the CONCORD-2 and CONCORD-3 studies using an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach. The…
Health Outcomes | Priority Setting/Ethics | Microsimulation | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Global -
ArticlePublication 2020Role and Contribution of Treatment and Imaging Modalities in Global Cervical Cancer Management
Using a microsimulation model of global cancer survival, this analysis estimates the impact of scaling …
Using a microsimulation model of global cancer survival, this analysis estimates the impact of scaling up treatment and imaging modalities on cervical cancer survival in 200 countries/territories. The paper evaluates the potential survival effect of scaling up treatment (chemotherapy, surgery, radiotherapy, and targeted therapy), and imaging modalities (ultrasound, x-ray, CT, MRI, PET, and single photon emission CT [SPECT]) to the mean level of high-income countries, both individually and in combination. The model estimates that global…
Health Outcomes | Priority Setting/Ethics | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Global -
ArticlePublication 2021Global Costs, Health Benefits, & Economic Benefits of Scaling Up Treatment and Imaging Modalities for Survival of 11 Cancers
This analysis estimated the costs and lifetime health and economic benefits of scaling up imaging …
This analysis estimated the costs and lifetime health and economic benefits of scaling up imaging and treatment modality packages on cancer survival in 200 countries/territories for patients diagnosed with one of 11 cancers (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, anus, liver, pancreas, lung, breast, cervix uteri, and prostate). Using a microsimulation model of global cancer survival, the paper evaluated the costs and health and economic benefits of scaling up packages of treatment (chemotherapy, surgery, radiotherapy, and targeted…
Health Outcomes | Priority Setting/Ethics | Microsimulation | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Potential Distributional Health & Financial Benefits of Increased Tobacco Taxes in Ethiopia: Findings from a Modeling Study
This study evaluates the potential impacts of Ethiopia's tobacco tax increase in 2020, which raised …
This study evaluates the potential impacts of Ethiopia's tobacco tax increase in 2020, which raised cigarette prices by approximately 67%. Employing parameters such as price elasticity of demand and smoking prevalence, the analysis utilizes existing literature and secondary data to model the effects of the reform on various outcomes, focusing on life years, tax revenues, cigarette expenditures, and catastrophic health expenditures (CHE). Concentrating solely on male smokers due to low female smoking rates, the results…
Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2022Child Health Inequity through Case Management of Under-Five Malaria in Nigeria: An ECEA
This study assesses the potential impact of subsidies covering the direct and indirect costs of …
This study assesses the potential impact of subsidies covering the direct and indirect costs of under-five malaria case management in Nigeria, utilizing an extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) and a decision tree model. Findings reveal that fully subsidizing medical, non-medical, and indirect costs could annually avert over 19,000 under-five deaths, 8,600 cases of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE), and US$187 million in out-of-pocket (OOP) spending. Per US$1 million invested, this translates to a significant reduction in under-five…
Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Child/Nutrition | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2021Distributional Health and Financial Consequences of Increased Cigarette Tax in Iran: An ECEA
This study examines the potential impact of a tax-induced cigarette price increase on financial and …
This study examines the potential impact of a tax-induced cigarette price increase on financial and health outcomes across different socioeconomic groups in Iran. Using pooled cross-sectional data from Household Income and Expenditure Surveys (2002–2017) and population data from Iran in 2019, an extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) methodology is employed to model the effects of a hypothetical increase in cigarette tax. The analysis evaluates health benefits, health expenditures averted, additional tax revenues generated, changes in household…
Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Middle East & North Africa