Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2019Estimation of Eating Disorders Prevalence by Age and Associations with Mortality in a Simulated Nationally Representative U.S. Cohort
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, …
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, and estimates the association of increased treatment coverage with ED-related mortality. Using an individual-level Markov state transition model calibrated to nationally-representative US survey data from 2007 and 2011, the authors simulated a virtual cohort of 100,000 individuals (50% male) from birth to age 40 years and modelled 4 ED diagnoses: anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, binge eating disorder, and other specified…
Calibration/Validation | North America | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Child/Nutrition | Mental Health -
ArticlePublication 2019Projected U.S. State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity and Severe Obesity
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories …
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories of body-mass index (BMI) in the United States. Self-reported BMI from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey (1993-1994 and 1999-2016) were obtained and corrected for quantile-specific self-reporting bias. Multinomial regressions were then fitted for each state and subgroup to estimate the prevalence of four BMI categories from 1990 through 2030: underweight or normal weight (BMI <25), overweight (25 to…
Calibration/Validation | North America | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants -
ArticlePublication 2022Excess Mortality and Elevated Body Weight in the U.S.
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by …
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by state and demographic subgroup. The authors developed a nationally-representative microsimulation (individual-level) model of US adults between 1999 and 2016, based on risk factor data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and body-mass index (BMI) mortality hazard ratios from a global pooling dataset. The model was calibrated to empirical all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER by state and subgroup, and…
Calibration/Validation | North America | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants -
ArticlePublication 2020Expanding Oral Disease Treatment is Cost Effective
This study developed a stochastic microsimulation model of oral health conditions, type-2 diabetes (T2D), T2D-related …
This study developed a stochastic microsimulation model of oral health conditions, type-2 diabetes (T2D), T2D-related microvascular diseases, and CVD, to project the cost-effectiveness of expanding periodontal treatment coverage among patients with T2D and periodontitis. Previous randomized trials found that treating periodontitis improved glycemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D), thus lowering the risks of developing T2D-related microvascular diseases and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The micro-simulation model parameters were obtained from the nationally representative National…
Calibration/Validation | North America | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | Graduate -
GuidelinesPublication 2016Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine
This article provides an overview of the main recommendations of the 2016 Second Panel on …
This article provides an overview of the main recommendations of the 2016 Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine. In 1993, the U.S. Public Health Service convened the first panel of experts to review the state of cost-effectiveness analysis and to develop guidelines for its use in health, to improve quality and promote comparability. Scientists and scholars in economics, clinical medicine, ethics, and statistics met to share expertise and develop recommendations by consensus. The…
Technology Assessment | North America | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Evidence Synthesis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine -
GuidelinesPublication 2016Estimating Health-State Utility for Economic Models: ISPOR Task Force Report
Cost-utility models are increasingly used in many countries to establish whether the cost of a …
Cost-utility models are increasingly used in many countries to establish whether the cost of a new intervention can be justified in terms of health benefits. Health-state utility (HSU) estimates (the preference for a given state of health on a cardinal scale where 0 represents dead and 1 represents full health) are typically among the most important and uncertain data inputs in cost-utility models. Clinical trials represent an important opportunity for the collection of health-utility data.…
Technology Assessment | North America | Preferences/Values | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Europe -
ReviewPublication 2016Remembering Howard Raiffa
Howard Raiffa (1924-2016) had a profound influence on all aspects of the decision sciences and on …
Howard Raiffa (1924-2016) had a profound influence on all aspects of the decision sciences and on the fields of systems analysis and operations research. He guided the introduction of the decision sciences into numerous fields such as business, medicine, public health, the environmental sciences, and law, and was instrumental in building world-recognized institutions such as the Kennedy School at Harvard and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis near Vienna, Austria. This article is a thoughtful tribute by…
Decision Theory | North America | Preferences/Values | Decision Analysis | Operations Research | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense -
GuidelinesPublication 2015USPSTF Procedure Manual
The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) Procedure Manual describes the methods used by the …
The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) Procedure Manual describes the methods used by the Task Force to ensure that its recommendations are scientifically sound, reproducible, and well documented. The Manual provides a high-level description of the Task Force’s structure, governance, and processes for selecting topics, reviewing evidence, soliciting and responding to public input, and arriving at a recommendation. It is intended as a guide for anyone who is interested in the Task Force, Task…
Technology Assessment | North America | Priority Setting/Ethics | Evidence Synthesis | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2015Cancer Models and Real-World Data: Better Together
Decision-analytic models synthesize available data on disease burden and intervention effectiveness to project estimates of …
Decision-analytic models synthesize available data on disease burden and intervention effectiveness to project estimates of the long-term consequences of care. While models have been influential in informing US cancer screening guidelines under ideal conditions, incorporating detailed data on real-world screening practice has been limited given the complexity of screening processes and behaviors throughout diverse health delivery systems in the United States. The authors describe the synergies that exist between decision-analytic models and health care utilization…
Calibration/Validation | North America | Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology