Resources Repository
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ReviewPublication 2015Agent-Based Models and Microsimulation
This article reviews the principles and applications of agent-based models (ABMs). ABMs are computational models …
This article reviews the principles and applications of agent-based models (ABMs). ABMs are computational models used to simulate the actions and interactions of “agents” within a system. Usually, each agent has a set of rules for how he or she responds to the environment and to other agents. These models are used to gain insight into the emergent behavior of complex systems with many agents, in which the emergent behavior depends upon the micro-level behavior…
Mathematical Models | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Dynamic Simulation | Military/Defense | Science/Technology -
BookPublication 2016Foundations of Decision Analysis
This book is described by the authors as emerging from what they have learned by …
This book is described by the authors as emerging from what they have learned by "teaching decision analysis to thousands of people in the United States and around the world in university classes and special professional educational programs". The early chapters and certain later chapters are written to be accessible to a general audience. Chapters 1 through 17 introduce the foundations of decision analysis without requiring significant mathematical sophistication. Chapter 26 discusses multi-attribute decision problems…
Decision Theory | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Decision Psychology | Probability/Bayes | Decision Analysis | Operations Research | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Military/Defense | Global -
BookPublication 2013Handbook of Decision Analysis
This book describes the philosophy, technical concepts, mathematics, and art of decision analysis for the …
This book describes the philosophy, technical concepts, mathematics, and art of decision analysis for the decision professional, and is designed to be supplemental reading for professional decision analysis training courses, a reference for beginning and experienced practitioners, and a supplemental text for an undergraduate or graduate course in decision analysis. The handbook includes chapters on the following topics: decision-making challenges; mathematical foundations of decision analysis; decision analysis soft skills; selecting the decision making process for…
Decision Theory | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Value of Information | Decision Analysis | Economics/Finance -
ArticlePublication 2007Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started and Evolved
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement …
In this chapter, Howard Raiffa discusses the evolution of decision analysis and his personal involvement in its development. He describes the early days of Operations Research (OR) in the late 1940s with its approach to complex, strategic decision making. After reading John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern’s Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1947) and Abraham Wald’s two books (1947, 1950), he became involved in statistical decision theory. A few years later, after reading Leonard…
Decision Theory | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Decision Analysis | Operations Research | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance -
BookPublication 2007Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications
Decision analysis consists of a prescriptive theory and associated models and tools that aid individuals …
Decision analysis consists of a prescriptive theory and associated models and tools that aid individuals or groups confronted with complex decision problems in a wide variety of contexts. Decision analysis can be applied to the environment, health and medicine, engineering, public policy, and business. This book reviews and extends the material typically presented in introductory texts on decision analysis. It covers the broad scope of decision analysis at an advanced level and includes chapters written by…
Mathematical Models | Decision Theory | Health/Medicine | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Value of Information | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Government/Law -
ReviewPublication 2001Modeling for Health Care and Other Policy Decisions: Uses, Roles and Validity
This is a review article of the role of modeling approaches to guide decision making …
This is a review article of the role of modeling approaches to guide decision making in health care and other domains. The role of models to support recommendations on the cost-effective use of medical technologies and pharmaceuticals is controversial. At the heart of the controversy is the degree to which experimental or other empirical evidence should be required prior to model use. The authors argue that the controversy stems in part from a misconception that…
Mathematical Models | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Priority Setting/Ethics | Evidence Synthesis | Technology Assessment | Environmental Health | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Climate/Environment | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | North America -
ReviewPublication 1982Decision Analysis: An Overview
This article, written for the non-decision analyst, describes what decision analysis is, what it can …
This article, written for the non-decision analyst, describes what decision analysis is, what it can and cannot do, why one should care to do this, and how one does it. Keeney describes decision analysis as "a formalization of common sense for decision problems which are too complex for informal use of common sense." He provides a more technical definition also, describing decision analysis as "a philosophy, articulated by a set of logical axioms, and a methodology…
Decision Theory | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Preferences/Values | Decision Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Military/Defense | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2024Extended Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Interventions to Improve Uptake of Diabetes Services in South Africa
This study examines the potential impact of a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program on diabetes …
This study examines the potential impact of a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program on diabetes diagnosis and treatment service utilization in South Africa (SA) using extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA). Applying a Markov model over a 45-year period, the analysis compares costs, health benefits, and financial risk protection (FRP) attributes of different CCT strategies, drawing from SA-specific data. Three scenarios were simulated: covering diagnosis services only, treatment services only, and both diagnosis and treatment services. Cost-effectiveness,…
Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Policy/Regulation | Sub-Saharan Africa -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2024Tutorial: Building Decision Trees
This tutorial illustrates the basic steps needed to develop decision trees in Amua using a …
This tutorial illustrates the basic steps needed to develop decision trees in Amua using a disease screening example. It details the process of how to build the structure of a decision tree, parameterize the model with probabilities and relevant outcomes (i.e., life expectancy), evaluate three alternative screening strategies in a baseline scenario, and perform one-way sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the results to different parameter values. Amua, the Swahili word meaning “decide”/“solve”, is…
Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine | Probability/Bayes | Decision Analysis | Clinical Care | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional