Handbook of Decision Analysis

This book describes the philosophy, technical concepts, mathematics, and art of decision analysis for the decision professional, and is designed to be supplemental reading for professional decision analysis training courses, a reference for beginning and experienced practitioners, and a supplemental text for an undergraduate or graduate course in decision analysis.

The handbook includes chapters on the following topics: decision-making challenges; mathematical foundations of decision analysis; decision analysis soft skills; selecting the decision making process for interacting with decision makers and stakeholders; framing the decision; crafting decision objectives; designing creative alternatives to create value; performing deterministic modeling and analysis of alternatives; assessing uncertainty; performing probabilistic modeling and analysis; portfolio decision analysis; communicating with senior decision makers; and implementing decisions.

The book also includes key insights from decision analysis applications and behavioral decision analysis research. The book uses three substantive illustrative examples (Roughneck North American Strategy, Geneptin Personalized Medicine, and Data Center) to illustrate the key decision analysis concepts and techniques, show the diversity of applications, and demonstrate how the techniques are tailored to different decision problems

The authors assume the reader has a technical (engineering, science, mathematics, or operations research) or business degree; a course in probability and statistics; and an introduction to single or multiple objective decision analysis in a college course or a professional short course.

Chapters include:

• Ch 1: Introduction to Decision Analysis
• Ch 2: Decision-Making Challenges
• Ch 3: Foundations of Decision Analysis
• Ch 4: Decision Analysis Soft Skills
• Ch 5: Use the Appropriate Decision Process
• Ch 6: Frame the Decision Opportunity
• Ch 7: Decision Objectives and Value Measures
• Ch 8: Design Creative Alternatives
• Ch 9: Perform Deterministic Analysis
• Ch 10: Quantify Uncertainty
• Ch 11: Perform Probabilistic Analysis
• Ch 12: Portfolio Resource Allocation
• Ch 13: Communicating with Decision Makers
• Ch 14: Enable Decision Implementation
• Ch 15: Summary of Major Themes
• Appendix A: Probability Theory
• Appendix B: Influence Diagrams
• Appendix C: Decision Conferencing