Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications

Decision analysis consists of a prescriptive theory and associated models and tools that aid individuals or groups confronted with complex decision problems in a wide variety of contexts. Decision analysis can be applied to the environment, health and medicine, engineering, public policy, and business. This book reviews and extends the material typically presented in introductory texts on decision analysis. It covers the broad scope of decision analysis at an advanced level and includes chapters written by authors that have made significant contributions to decision analysis. It is designed to be suitable as a supplementary text for advanced courses in decision analysis.

Part I covers the history and foundations of decision analysis. Part II discusses structuring decision problems, including the development of objectives and their attributes, and influence diagrams. Part III provides an overview of the elicitation and aggregation of probabilities and advances in model building with influence diagrams and belief networks. Part IV discusses utility and risk preferences, practical value models, and extensions of the subjective expected utility model. Part V consists of an overview of advances in risk analysis. Part VI puts decision analysis in a behavioral and organizational context. Part VII presents a selection of major applications.

Chapters include:

• Ch 1: Introduction
• Ch 2: The Emergence of Decision Analysis
• Ch 3: The Foundations of Decision Analysis Revisited
• Ch 4: Decision Analysis: A Personal Account
• Ch 5: Reflections on the Contributions of Ward Edwards
• Ch 6: Defining a Decision Analytic Structure
• Ch 7: Developing Objectives and Attributes
• Ch 8: Eliciting Probabilities from Experts
• Ch 9: Aggregating Probability Distributions
• Ch 10: Belief Networks and Influence Diagrams
• Ch 11: Bayesian Approach to Learning Causal Networks
• Ch 12: Utility and Risk Preferences
• Ch 13: Practical Value Models
• Ch 14: Extensions of Subjective Expected Utility Model
• Ch 15: Probabilistic Risk Analysis for Engineered Systems
• Ch 16: Engineering Risk-Analysis Method and Some Applications
• Ch 17: Risk Analysis for Risk-Management Decision-Making
• Ch 18: What Have We Learned from Our Mistakes?
• Ch 19: Decision Conferencing
• Ch 20: Resource Allocation Decisions
• Ch 21: From Decision Analysis to Decision Organization
• Ch 22: Building Decision Competency in Organizations
• Ch 23: Negotiation Analysis: Between Decisions and Games
• Ch 24: Plutonium Disposition Options in U.S. and Russia
• Ch 25: Choosing a Tritium Supply Technology for Nuclear Weapons
• Ch 26: Applications of Decision Analysis to the Military
• Ch 27: Balancing Objectives in Nuclear Refueling Strategies
• Ch 28: Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications