Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2019Estimation of Eating Disorders Prevalence by Age and Associations with Mortality in a Simulated Nationally Representative U.S. Cohort
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, …
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, and estimates the association of increased treatment coverage with ED-related mortality. Using an individual-level Markov state transition model calibrated to nationally-representative US survey data from 2007 and 2011, the authors simulated a virtual cohort of 100,000 individuals (50% male) from birth to age 40 years and modelled 4 ED diagnoses: anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, binge eating disorder, and other specified…
Calibration/Validation | Mental Health | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Child/Nutrition | North America -
ArticlePublication 2019Projected U.S. State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity and Severe Obesity
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories …
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories of body-mass index (BMI) in the United States. Self-reported BMI from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey (1993-1994 and 1999-2016) were obtained and corrected for quantile-specific self-reporting bias. Multinomial regressions were then fitted for each state and subgroup to estimate the prevalence of four BMI categories from 1990 through 2030: underweight or normal weight (BMI <25), overweight (25 to…
Calibration/Validation | Social Determinants | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Chronic Disease/Risk | North America -
ArticlePublication 2022Excess Mortality and Elevated Body Weight in the U.S.
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by …
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by state and demographic subgroup. The authors developed a nationally-representative microsimulation (individual-level) model of US adults between 1999 and 2016, based on risk factor data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and body-mass index (BMI) mortality hazard ratios from a global pooling dataset. The model was calibrated to empirical all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER by state and subgroup, and…
Calibration/Validation | Social Determinants | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | North America -
ArticlePublication 2016Estimating Benefits of Regulations Affecting Addictive Goods
The question of how to evaluate lost consumer surplus in benefit−cost analyses is controversial. There …
The question of how to evaluate lost consumer surplus in benefit−cost analyses is controversial. There are clear health benefits of regulations that curb consumption of goods with health risks, such as tobacco products and foods high in fats, calories, sugar, and sodium. Yet, if regulations cause consumers to give up goods they like, the health benefits they experience may be offset by some utility loss, which benefit−cost analyses of regulations need to take into account.…
Decision Theory | Mental Health | Preferences/Values | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Health/Medicine -
Lesson/ModulePublication, Teaching Resource 2014Scientific Decision-Making: Teacher's Guide
This guide provides high-school level activities and readings on how decision-making can affect our health, …
This guide provides high-school level activities and readings on how decision-making can affect our health, focusing on cardiovascular health. Exercises include: Decisions and Risks Smarter Choices Introduction to Personal Stories Heart: Basic Measurements Calculating Coronary Artery Disease Risk Team Diagnosis of Three Cases Comparative Effectiveness Decision-Making Tools These exercises explore the biology of the heart, a coronary disease model, risk factors for heart disease, and a wider range of activities around health decision-making.
Decision Theory | Social Determinants | Decision Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | High School | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2013Contribution of H. Pylori and Smoking to US Incidence of Gastric Adenocarcinoma: A Microsimulation Model
Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading …
Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. This analysis estimates the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type non-cardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence. The authors developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to U.S. epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which…
Calibration/Validation | Social Determinants | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | North America -
ReviewPublication 2010Validation of Population-Based Disease Simulation Models: A Review
This article develops a framework for validating population-based chronic disease simulation models, and reviews the …
This article develops a framework for validating population-based chronic disease simulation models, and reviews the principles and methods for such models. While computer simulation models are used increasingly to support public health research and policy, questions about their quality persist. Based on the review, the authors formulated a set of recommendations for gathering evidence of model credibility. They find that evidence of model credibility derives from examining: 1) the process of model development, 2) the…
Calibration/Validation | Social Determinants | Mathematical Models | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine