Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2020Impact of Treatment and Imaging Modalities on 5-Year Net Survival of 11 Cancers in 200 Countries
This analysis describes the development of a microsimulation model of stage-specific cancer survival in 200 …
This analysis describes the development of a microsimulation model of stage-specific cancer survival in 200 countries/territories for 11 cancers (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, anus, liver, pancreas, lung, breast, cervix uteri, and prostate). The paper estimated current 5-year net survival for diagnosed cancers in each country and potential survival gains from increasing the availability of individual treatment and imaging modalities, and more comprehensive packages of scale-up. Global 5-year net survival for all 11 cancers (combined) is…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Health Outcomes | Chronic Disease/Risk | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Systems | Global -
ArticlePublication 2021Global Costs, Health Benefits, & Economic Benefits of Scaling Up Treatment and Imaging Modalities for Survival of 11 Cancers
This analysis estimated the costs and lifetime health and economic benefits of scaling up imaging …
This analysis estimated the costs and lifetime health and economic benefits of scaling up imaging and treatment modality packages on cancer survival in 200 countries/territories for patients diagnosed with one of 11 cancers (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, anus, liver, pancreas, lung, breast, cervix uteri, and prostate). Using a microsimulation model of global cancer survival, the paper evaluated the costs and health and economic benefits of scaling up packages of treatment (chemotherapy, surgery, radiotherapy, and targeted…
Microsimulation | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Health Outcomes | Chronic Disease/Risk | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Systems | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Excess Mortality and Elevated Body Weight in the U.S.
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by …
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by state and demographic subgroup. The authors developed a nationally-representative microsimulation (individual-level) model of US adults between 1999 and 2016, based on risk factor data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and body-mass index (BMI) mortality hazard ratios from a global pooling dataset. The model was calibrated to empirical all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER by state and subgroup, and…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Health Outcomes | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of COVID-19 on Cancer Diagnosis and Survival in Chile
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in …
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in Chile, using a microsimulation model of five cancers: breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach. The model simulates cancer incidence and progression, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities, and was calibrated to empirical data on monthly detected cases, stage at diagnosis, and 5-year net survival. The analysis accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on month-by-month excess mortality and…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Health Outcomes | Chronic Disease/Risk | Infectious Diseases | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of Treatment and Imaging Modalities on Global Breast Cancer Survival
This analysis used a microsimulation model of global cancer survival to simulate 5-year net survival …
This analysis used a microsimulation model of global cancer survival to simulate 5-year net survival for women with newly diagnosed breast cancer in 200 countries/territories in 2018, accounting for the availability and stage-specific survival impact of specific treatment modalities (chemotherapy, radiotherapy, surgery, and targeted therapy), imaging modalities (ultrasound, x-ray, CT, MRI, PET, and single-photon emission computed tomography [SPECT]), and quality of cancer care. The model was calibrated to empirical data on 5-year net breast cancer…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Health Outcomes | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Benefit and Harm of Intensive Blood Pressure Treatment: Derivation and Validation of Risk Models Using Data from the Sprint and Accord Trials
Intensive blood pressure (BP) treatment can avert cardiovascular disease (CVD) events but can cause some …
Intensive blood pressure (BP) treatment can avert cardiovascular disease (CVD) events but can cause some serious adverse events. The authors sought to create risk calculators to estimate individual patients’ chances of benefit and harm from intensive treatment. They developed statistical models of cardiovascular events and serious adverse events from individual participant data from the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) of intensive blood pressure treatment (N = 9,069 with complete covariate data) and validated them…
Evidence Synthesis | Probability/Bayes | Health Outcomes | Chronic Disease/Risk -
ArticlePublication 2015A Conceptual Model for Breast, Cervical, and Colorectal Cancer Screening
General frameworks of the cancer screening process are available, but none directly compare the process …
General frameworks of the cancer screening process are available, but none directly compare the process in detail across different organ sites. This limits the ability of medical and public health professionals to develop and evaluate coordinated screening programs that apply resources and population management strategies available for one cancer site to other sites. This paper presents a conceptual model that incorporates a single screening episode for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers into a unified framework based…
Evidence Synthesis | Microsimulation | Health Outcomes | Chronic Disease/Risk | Preferences/Values | Test Performance | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2015Population Health Model (POHEM): An Overview
This paper provides an overview of the rationale, methodology and applications of the Population Health …
This paper provides an overview of the rationale, methodology and applications of the Population Health Model (POHEM). POHEM is a health microsimulation model, developed at Statistics Canada in the early 1990s. The authors describe that POHEM draws together rich multivariate data from a wide range of sources to simulate the lifecycle of the Canadian population, specifically focusing on aspects of health. The model dynamically simulates individuals’ disease states, risk factors, and health determinants, in order…
Evidence Synthesis | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Costing Methods | Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2023Calibration and Validation of the Colorectal Cancer and Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) Microsimulation Model Using Deep Neural Networks
This study explores the efficacy of machine learning (ML)-based emulators in calibrating complex microsimulation models, …
This study explores the efficacy of machine learning (ML)-based emulators in calibrating complex microsimulation models, using the Colorectal Cancer (CRC)-Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) model as a case study. ML algorithms, including deep neural networks (DNN), were trained and compared using data generated from the CRC-AIM model to predict various outcomes. The DNN outperformed other algorithms and efficiently predicted outcomes, reducing computational burden significantly. The calibrated CRC-AIM model demonstrated cross-model validity against established CISNET models…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | North America