Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2020Role and Contribution of Treatment and Imaging Modalities in Global Cervical Cancer Management
Using a microsimulation model of global cancer survival, this analysis estimates the impact of scaling …
Using a microsimulation model of global cancer survival, this analysis estimates the impact of scaling up treatment and imaging modalities on cervical cancer survival in 200 countries/territories. The paper evaluates the potential survival effect of scaling up treatment (chemotherapy, surgery, radiotherapy, and targeted therapy), and imaging modalities (ultrasound, x-ray, CT, MRI, PET, and single photon emission CT [SPECT]) to the mean level of high-income countries, both individually and in combination. The model estimates that global…
Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Outcomes | Health Systems | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Excess Mortality and Elevated Body Weight in the U.S.
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by …
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by state and demographic subgroup. The authors developed a nationally-representative microsimulation (individual-level) model of US adults between 1999 and 2016, based on risk factor data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and body-mass index (BMI) mortality hazard ratios from a global pooling dataset. The model was calibrated to empirical all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER by state and subgroup, and…
Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Outcomes | Calibration/Validation | Social Determinants | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of COVID-19 on Cancer Diagnosis and Survival in Chile
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in …
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in Chile, using a microsimulation model of five cancers: breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach. The model simulates cancer incidence and progression, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities, and was calibrated to empirical data on monthly detected cases, stage at diagnosis, and 5-year net survival. The analysis accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on month-by-month excess mortality and…
Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Outcomes | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of Treatment and Imaging Modalities on Global Breast Cancer Survival
This analysis used a microsimulation model of global cancer survival to simulate 5-year net survival …
This analysis used a microsimulation model of global cancer survival to simulate 5-year net survival for women with newly diagnosed breast cancer in 200 countries/territories in 2018, accounting for the availability and stage-specific survival impact of specific treatment modalities (chemotherapy, radiotherapy, surgery, and targeted therapy), imaging modalities (ultrasound, x-ray, CT, MRI, PET, and single-photon emission computed tomography [SPECT]), and quality of cancer care. The model was calibrated to empirical data on 5-year net breast cancer…
Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Outcomes | Calibration/Validation | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Duration & Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance in Hepatitis C Patients After Viral Eradication
This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of biannual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients cured …
This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of biannual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients cured of hepatitis C virus (HCV) using oral direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). A microsimulation model of HCC natural history in individuals with HCV-related advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis post-DAAs was developed, integrating data on HCC incidence, tumor progression, surveillance adherence, and health state costs/utilities. Biannual ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein surveillance were compared to no surveillance over varying durations (5 years to lifetime). Results indicate…
Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2022Cost-Effectiveness of Screening for Atrial Fibrillation Using Wearable Devices
This economic evaluation assesses the cost-effectiveness of atrial fibrillation (AF) screening strategies, particularly utilizing wrist-worn …
This economic evaluation assesses the cost-effectiveness of atrial fibrillation (AF) screening strategies, particularly utilizing wrist-worn wearable devices, to prevent strokes. Conducted using a microsimulation decision-analytic model, the study spans from September 8, 2020, to May 23, 2022, incorporating 30 million simulated individuals representative of the US population aged 65 years or older. Eight screening strategies, including six employing wrist-worn devices and two using traditional methods, were compared against no screening. Results indicate that all wrist-worn…
Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | North America -
ReportPublication 2021Valuing COVID-19 Mortality and Morbidity Risks
In this report, the researchers develop an approach for valuing COVID-19 mortality and morbidity risk …
In this report, the researchers develop an approach for valuing COVID-19 mortality and morbidity risk reductions that builds on the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Guidelines for Regulatory Impact Analysis. They review the differences between COVID-19 mortality risks and the types of risks that are more commonly studied, and find that the impacts of these differences on the value of mortality risk reductions (the value per statistical life, VSL) are uncertain. They…
Benefit-Cost Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Preferences/Values | Infectious Diseases | Government/Law | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021Health Opportunity Cost Threshold for CEA in the U.S.
Using a modeled cohort of 100,000 individuals in the United States with private health insurance, …
Using a modeled cohort of 100,000 individuals in the United States with private health insurance, the authors simulated the short-term mortality and morbidity resulting from increased premium related cancelation of insurance coverage. The authors used this model to estimate cost-effectiveness thresholds, in dollars per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained based on health opportunity costs. They reported the number of persons who dropped insurance coverage, resulting number of additional deaths and QALYs lost from mortality and…
Microsimulation | Policy/Regulation | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2020Expanding Oral Disease Treatment is Cost Effective
This study developed a stochastic microsimulation model of oral health conditions, type-2 diabetes (T2D), T2D-related …
This study developed a stochastic microsimulation model of oral health conditions, type-2 diabetes (T2D), T2D-related microvascular diseases, and CVD, to project the cost-effectiveness of expanding periodontal treatment coverage among patients with T2D and periodontitis. Previous randomized trials found that treating periodontitis improved glycemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D), thus lowering the risks of developing T2D-related microvascular diseases and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The micro-simulation model parameters were obtained from the nationally representative National…
Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | North America | Graduate