Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2022Estimated Transmission Outcomes and Costs of SARS-CoV-2 Diagnostic Testing, Screening, and Surveillance Strategies Among a Simulated Population of Primary School Students
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic's significant educational disruptions, the U.S. government allocated $10 …
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic's significant educational disruptions, the U.S. government allocated $10 billion in March 2021 for testing in schools. The study aimed to analyze the costs and benefits of different COVID-19 testing strategies, particularly focusing on full-time, in-person elementary and middle school education. Utilizing an updated agent-based network model, the study simulated transmission scenarios in schools, considering various testing strategies ranging from diagnostic testing (test-to-stay) to reduce symptom-based isolations, routine screening…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Test Performance | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2022Modeling the Effectiveness of Healthcare Personnel Reactive Testing and Screening for the SARS-Cov-2 Omicron Variant within Nursing Homes
The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 has been hypothesized to exhibit faster clearance (time from peak …
The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 has been hypothesized to exhibit faster clearance (time from peak viral concentration to clearance of acute infection), may be less detectable by antigen tests (decreased sensitivity), and may be more likely to evade immunity conferred by past infection or vaccination) compared to prior variants. This calls for a reassessment of strategies to prevent its spread, especially in vulnerable settings like nursing homes. Using a model that tracks viral shedding patterns,…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Test Performance | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2023Benefits and Costs of COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates
Written mid-pandemic, this article evaluates the direct costs and health benefits of requiring COVID-19 vaccinations …
Written mid-pandemic, this article evaluates the direct costs and health benefits of requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for U.S. federal employees and healthcare and private sector workers. These mandates were controversial and some were halted by litigation. If they had been implemented as intended, the net benefits would depend on the course of the pandemic. If a more transmissible variant (such as Omicron) emerges, the net benefits may be large. If the pandemic instead fades, the benefits…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | State-Transition | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2023Cost-Effectiveness of Novel TB Vaccines: A Modeling Study
A modeling study assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines …
A modeling study assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies, compared to a ‘no-new-vaccine’ counterfactual. Vaccine scenarios considered two vaccine product profiles (one targeted at infants, one at adolescents/adults), both assumed to prevent progression to active TB. Vaccine introduction was estimated to require substantial near-term resources, offset by future cost-savings from averted TB burden.…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Spatial-Mechanistic Model to Estimate Sub-National Tuberculosis Burden in Brazilian Municipalities
Reliable subnational estimates of TB incidence are needed to focus disease control resources in areas …
Reliable subnational estimates of TB incidence are needed to focus disease control resources in areas of highest need. This study developed an approach for generating small area estimates of TB incidence, and the fraction of individuals missed by routine case detection, based on available notification and mortality data. The approach is demonstrated by estimating TB outcomes for 5568 municipalities in Brazil, revealing substantial subnational differences in disease burden and other metrics useful for designing high-impact…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2022Early HPV Natural History Transitions
Microsimulation models used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of novel cervical cancer screening technologies rely on …
Microsimulation models used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of novel cervical cancer screening technologies rely on accurate transition risks for human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, persistence (or absence of HPV clearance), progression to precancerous lesions, and invasion. To inform the refinement of such models, we compared the early natural history of HPV types using prospective data from immunocompetent women in the Guanacaste Natural History Study, the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study, and the Costa Rica HPV Vaccine Trial. We…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | North America | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2022Excess Mortality and Elevated Body Weight in the U.S.
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by …
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by state and demographic subgroup. The authors developed a nationally-representative microsimulation (individual-level) model of US adults between 1999 and 2016, based on risk factor data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and body-mass index (BMI) mortality hazard ratios from a global pooling dataset. The model was calibrated to empirical all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER by state and subgroup, and…
Calibration/Validation | Social Determinants | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of COVID-19 on Cancer Diagnosis and Survival in Chile
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in …
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in Chile, using a microsimulation model of five cancers: breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach. The model simulates cancer incidence and progression, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities, and was calibrated to empirical data on monthly detected cases, stage at diagnosis, and 5-year net survival. The analysis accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on month-by-month excess mortality and…
Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2022Cost-Effectiveness & Value-of-Information Analysis Using Machine Learning-Based Metamodeling: A Case of Hepatitis C Treatment
This study compares machine learning (ML)-based metamodels with conventional metamodeling approaches in replicating the outcomes …
This study compares machine learning (ML)-based metamodels with conventional metamodeling approaches in replicating the outcomes of a complex simulation model of hepatitis C virus (HCV) natural history. Three ML-based metamodels (random forest, support vector regression, and artificial neural networks) and a linear regression-based metamodel were developed from the simulation model's 40 input parameters. Performance evaluation included root mean squared error (RMSE) and Pearson's R2 on normalized data. ML-based metamodels generally outperformed linear regression, with random…
Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine