Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2022Modeling the Effectiveness of Healthcare Personnel Reactive Testing and Screening for the SARS-Cov-2 Omicron Variant within Nursing Homes
The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 has been hypothesized to exhibit faster clearance (time from peak …
The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 has been hypothesized to exhibit faster clearance (time from peak viral concentration to clearance of acute infection), may be less detectable by antigen tests (decreased sensitivity), and may be more likely to evade immunity conferred by past infection or vaccination) compared to prior variants. This calls for a reassessment of strategies to prevent its spread, especially in vulnerable settings like nursing homes. Using a model that tracks viral shedding patterns,…
Test Performance | North America | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine -
ReviewPublication 2022Significance of Advanced COVID-19 Diagnostic Testing in Pandemic Control Measures
Over the past two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientific community has mounted significant …
Over the past two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientific community has mounted significant efforts to combat the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 virus. Despite substantial progress in vaccines and treatments, leading to lower hospitalization and death rates, the virus has continued to evolve, primarily through mutations. From the onset, diagnostic tests have been crucial in identifying and controlling the virus spread. The scientific world has pioneered various diagnostic techniques, including nucleic acid, antigen, and antibody-based…
Test Performance | North America | Clinical Care | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2023Achieving the Cancer Moonshot Goal
The Cancer Moonshot seeks to reduce age-standardized cancer mortality rates by at least 50% over …
The Cancer Moonshot seeks to reduce age-standardized cancer mortality rates by at least 50% over the next 25 years. This article estimates trends in U.S. cancer mortality for all cancers and the six leading types and reviews opportunities to prevent, detect, and treat these common cancers.
Priority Setting/Ethics | North America | Clinical Care | Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2023Benefits and Costs of COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates
Written mid-pandemic, this article evaluates the direct costs and health benefits of requiring COVID-19 vaccinations …
Written mid-pandemic, this article evaluates the direct costs and health benefits of requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for U.S. federal employees and healthcare and private sector workers. These mandates were controversial and some were halted by litigation. If they had been implemented as intended, the net benefits would depend on the course of the pandemic. If a more transmissible variant (such as Omicron) emerges, the net benefits may be large. If the pandemic instead fades, the benefits…
North America | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2022Modeling the Relative Risk of Incidence and Mortality of Select Vaccine-Preventable Diseases
Immunization is one of the most effective public health interventions, saving millions of lives every …
Immunization is one of the most effective public health interventions, saving millions of lives every year. Ethiopia has seen gradual improvements in immunization coverage and access to child health care services; however, inequalities in child mortality across wealth quintiles and regions remain persistent. This paper models the relative distributional incidence and mortality of four vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) (rotavirus diarrhea, human papillomavirus, measles, and pneumonia) by wealth quintile and geographic region in Ethiopia. The authors approach…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Sub-Saharan Africa | Social Determinants | Infectious Diseases | Evidence Synthesis | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2021Health Gains and Financial Protection from HPV Vaccination
High out-of-pocket medical expenses for cervical cancer can lead to catastrophic health expenditures and medical …
High out-of-pocket medical expenses for cervical cancer can lead to catastrophic health expenditures and medical impoverishment in many low-resource settings. This article uses a static cohort model that captures the main features of HPV vaccines and population demographics to project health and economic outcomes associated with routine HPV vaccination in Ethiopia. The findings show that, assuming 100% vaccine efficacy against HPV-16/18 and 50% vaccination coverage, routine HPV vaccination could avert up to 970 000 cases…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Sub-Saharan Africa | Infectious Diseases | Microsimulation -
ArticlePublication 2022Early HPV Natural History Transitions
Microsimulation models used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of novel cervical cancer screening technologies rely on …
Microsimulation models used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of novel cervical cancer screening technologies rely on accurate transition risks for human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, persistence (or absence of HPV clearance), progression to precancerous lesions, and invasion. To inform the refinement of such models, we compared the early natural history of HPV types using prospective data from immunocompetent women in the Guanacaste Natural History Study, the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study, and the Costa Rica HPV Vaccine Trial. We…
North America | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2019Projected U.S. State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity and Severe Obesity
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories …
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories of body-mass index (BMI) in the United States. Self-reported BMI from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey (1993-1994 and 1999-2016) were obtained and corrected for quantile-specific self-reporting bias. Multinomial regressions were then fitted for each state and subgroup to estimate the prevalence of four BMI categories from 1990 through 2030: underweight or normal weight (BMI <25), overweight (25 to…
Calibration/Validation | North America | Social Determinants | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Chronic Disease/Risk -
ArticlePublication 2022Excess Mortality and Elevated Body Weight in the U.S.
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by …
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by state and demographic subgroup. The authors developed a nationally-representative microsimulation (individual-level) model of US adults between 1999 and 2016, based on risk factor data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and body-mass index (BMI) mortality hazard ratios from a global pooling dataset. The model was calibrated to empirical all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER by state and subgroup, and…
Calibration/Validation | North America | Social Determinants | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk