Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2022Emerging Therapies for COVID-19: The Value of Information From More Clinical Trials
The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated time-sensitive policy and implementation decisions regarding new therapies in the face …
The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated time-sensitive policy and implementation decisions regarding new therapies in the face of uncertainty. This study aimed to quantify consequences of approving therapies or pursuing further research. The authors used a cohort state-transition model for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs associated with multiple drug regimens and usual care. For each they assessed immediate approval, use only in research, emergency use authorization or reject. They conducted cost-effectiveness…
Benefit-Cost Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Value of Information | State-Transition | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | North America | Europe -
ArticlePublication 2022Early HPV Natural History Transitions
Microsimulation models used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of novel cervical cancer screening technologies rely on …
Microsimulation models used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of novel cervical cancer screening technologies rely on accurate transition risks for human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, persistence (or absence of HPV clearance), progression to precancerous lesions, and invasion. To inform the refinement of such models, we compared the early natural history of HPV types using prospective data from immunocompetent women in the Guanacaste Natural History Study, the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study, and the Costa Rica HPV Vaccine Trial. We…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | North America | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2019Estimation of Eating Disorders Prevalence by Age and Associations with Mortality in a Simulated Nationally Representative U.S. Cohort
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, …
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, and estimates the association of increased treatment coverage with ED-related mortality. Using an individual-level Markov state transition model calibrated to nationally-representative US survey data from 2007 and 2011, the authors simulated a virtual cohort of 100,000 individuals (50% male) from birth to age 40 years and modelled 4 ED diagnoses: anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, binge eating disorder, and other specified…
Calibration/Validation | Mental Health | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Child/Nutrition | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of COVID-19 on Cancer Diagnosis and Survival in Chile
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in …
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in Chile, using a microsimulation model of five cancers: breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach. The model simulates cancer incidence and progression, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities, and was calibrated to empirical data on monthly detected cases, stage at diagnosis, and 5-year net survival. The analysis accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on month-by-month excess mortality and…
Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2022Child Health Inequity through Case Management of Under-Five Malaria in Nigeria: An ECEA
This study assesses the potential impact of subsidies covering the direct and indirect costs of …
This study assesses the potential impact of subsidies covering the direct and indirect costs of under-five malaria case management in Nigeria, utilizing an extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) and a decision tree model. Findings reveal that fully subsidizing medical, non-medical, and indirect costs could annually avert over 19,000 under-five deaths, 8,600 cases of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE), and US$187 million in out-of-pocket (OOP) spending. Per US$1 million invested, this translates to a significant reduction in under-five…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Child/Nutrition | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2020Perceptions of COVID-19 around the World
This study evaluates public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world in ten countries across …
This study evaluates public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world in ten countries across Europe, America, and Asia. They found that significant predictors of risk perception included personal experience with the virus, individualistic and prosocial values, hearing about the virus from friends and family, trust in government, science, and medical professionals, personal knowledge of government strategy, and personal and collective efficacy. Although there was substantial variability across cultures, individualistic worldviews, personal experience, prosocial values,…
Risk Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2020Valuing COVID-19 Mortality Risk
In this article, the author evaluates whether conventional estimates of the value per statistical life …
In this article, the author evaluates whether conventional estimates of the value per statistical life (VSL) in the United States (about $10 million) are appropriate for evaluating policies that affect risk of COVID-19. This estimate may be too large, because: (1) VSL estimates marginal values but COVID-19 risks can be non-marginal; (2) VSL is estimated for the average resident, but COVID-19 mortality is concentrated among the elderly; and (3) the pandemic has caused substantial losses…
Benefit-Cost Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Preferences/Values | Government/Law | Global -
ArticlePublication 2021COVID and the Age–VSL Relationship
In this article, the researchers explore the approach used to value COVID-19 mortality risk reductions …
In this article, the researchers explore the approach used to value COVID-19 mortality risk reductions in analyses of lockdowns and other policies. Many rely on a population-average estimate of the value per statistical life (VSL); others adjust VSL for life expectancy at the age of death. The article explores the implications of theory and empirical studies, which suggest that the relationship between age and VSL is uncertain; these uncertainties in turn may affect whether the…
Benefit-Cost Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Preferences/Values | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2020Testing for SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. Recently, the UK government has made …
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. Recently, the UK government has made antibody testing available to anyone wanting it, even if there is no clinical indication. The purpose of this article is to provide guidance for when to consider antibody testing in individuals with and without symptoms suggestive of current or past SARS-CoV-2 infection. Key points made by the authors include: (1) antibody testing is likely to be most useful 2 weeks…
Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine