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GlossaryPublication, Teaching Resource 2022Glossary: Probability Revision and Bayes
This glossary of terms supports the teaching pack on Probability Revision and Bayes, in which students …
This glossary of terms supports the teaching pack on Probability Revision and Bayes, in which students are introduced to the implications of imperfect information, acquire a conceptual understanding of Bayes Theorem, and gain practical skills in performing probability revision. In addition to the glossary, materials include an instructor's note, videos, companion slides, an annotated bibliography, sample exercises, and additional support. Glossary of Terms Bayes' rule/Bayes formula Conditional probability Expected value False negatives (FN) False positives…
Climate/Environment | Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Decision Analysis | Environmental Health | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2019Verbal Probabilities: Very Likely to Be Somewhat More Confusing Than Numbers
People interpret verbal expressions of probabilities (e.g. “very likely”) in different ways, yet words are …
People interpret verbal expressions of probabilities (e.g. “very likely”) in different ways, yet words are commonly preferred to numbers when communicating uncertainty. Simply providing numerical translations alongside reports or text containing verbal probabilities should encourage consistency, but these guidelines are often ignored. In an online experiment with 924 participants, the authors compared four different formats for presenting verbal probabilities with the numerical guidelines used in the US Intelligence Community Directive 203 to see whether any…
Climate/Environment | Probability/Bayes | Culture/Society
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