Verbal Probabilities: Very Likely to Be Somewhat More Confusing Than Numbers
2019
People interpret verbal expressions of probabilities (e.g. “very likely”) in different ways, yet words are commonly preferred to numbers when communicating uncertainty. Simply providing numerical translations alongside reports or text containing verbal probabilities should encourage consistency, but these guidelines are often ignored.
In an online experiment with 924 participants, the authors compared four different formats for presenting verbal probabilities with the numerical guidelines used in the US Intelligence Community Directive 203 to see whether any could improve the correspondence between the intended meaning and participants’ interpretation (“in-context”). This extends previous work in the domain of climate science.
Adapted from publication abstract.
Verbal Probabilities: Very Likely to Be Somewhat More Confusing Than Numbers
Source:
Wintle BC, Fraser H, Wills BC et al. Verbal Probabilities: Very Likely to Be Somewhat More Confusing Than Numbers. PLOS ONE 2019; 14 (4): e0213522. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0213522