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ArticlePublication 1989Quantitative Meanings of Verbal Probability Expressions
In this article, the meanings of 18 verbal probability expressions were studied in 3 ways: …
In this article, the meanings of 18 verbal probability expressions were studied in 3 ways: (1) frequency distributions of what single number best represented each expression; (2) word-to-number acceptability functions from what range of numbers from 0% to 100% best represented each expression; and (3) number-to-word acceptability functions from which expressions were appropriate for multiples of 5% from 5% to 95%. The results agreed highly with others and were highly consistent across methods. Expressions incorporating…
Science/Technology | Probability/Bayes | Culture/Society -
Online LearningVideo, Teaching Resource 2023Khan Videos: Conditional Probability
These three videos, produced by Khan Academy, focus on conditional probability. Conditional probability with Bayes' …
These three videos, produced by Khan Academy, focus on conditional probability. Conditional probability with Bayes' Theorem (~5 min). Created by Brit Cruise, this video presents conditional probability visually using trees. Conditional probability and independence (~4 min). This video uses conditional probability to see if events are independent or not. Conditional probability tree diagram (~11 min). This video uses a tree diagram to work out the following conditional probability question: If someone fails a drug test, what is the…
Science/Technology | Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | High School | College | Graduate | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 1989Words or Numbers? The Evaluation of Probability Expressions in General Practice
A sample of 56 general practitioners were asked to rate, on a percentage scale, 23 …
A sample of 56 general practitioners were asked to rate, on a percentage scale, 23 words or phrases which denote frequency or likelihood. The hypothetical context of the exercise was that of communicating to patients the probability of a side-effect (headache) arising from an unspecified prescription medicine. Median phrase ratings ranged from “never” at 0% to “certain” at 95% with a 50% rating given to the phrase “reasonable chance.” Despite relatively large variance in ratings…
Science/Technology | Probability/Bayes | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2020Interpretation of Dutch Articles Probability Phrases - Miscommunication Risk
Probabilities and risks play a crucial role in science communication. Doctors inform their patients about …
Probabilities and risks play a crucial role in science communication. Doctors inform their patients about the probability of a successful treatment and the risks of side-effects. Climate researchers want to convey the probability of different climate change scenarios. Science journalists report on estimated probabilities and risks in many different fields. Every day, people make decisions based on these probabilities and risks. Due to this dependence of the decision maker on the information provider, it is…
Science/Technology | Probability/Bayes | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine -
Lesson/ModuleWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2016DNA Evidence: Case Study in Probabilities
This educational module on DNA evidence presents trial testimony, exhibits, and opinions in a case …
This educational module on DNA evidence presents trial testimony, exhibits, and opinions in a case in which federal courts at every level discerned “inaccuracies” in the testimony of a leading expert about probabilities associated with the DNA evidence. By embedding these legal materials in background explanations, critical questions, and short problems, the module supports self-study and class discussions that together can elucidate key principles in scientific reasoning and quantitative analysis and that can help students…
Science/Technology | Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Risk Analysis | Injuries/Accidents | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global | North America | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 1967Empirical Scaling of Common Numerical Probabilities Verbal Phrases
Probability theory is one tool we use to deal with the uncertainty of future events. …
Probability theory is one tool we use to deal with the uncertainty of future events. The result of a probability calculation of an event that has not yet occurred is a number varying from 0 to 1. This number expresses the likelihood of that event occurring. There are many verbal phrases that also are used to express intuitively the notion of the likelihood of an event. One hundred eighty-eight subjects were given numerical probability estimates…
Science/Technology | Probability/Bayes | Culture/Society
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