Interpretation of Dutch Articles Probability Phrases - Miscommunication Risk
2020
Probabilities and risks play a crucial role in science communication. Doctors inform their patients about the probability of a successful treatment and the risks of side-effects. Climate researchers want to convey the probability of different climate change scenarios. Science journalists report on estimated probabilities and risks in many different fields. Every day, people make decisions based on these probabilities and risks. Due to this dependence of the decision maker on the information provider, it is important that the message is understood as intended in order to minimize the risk of miscommunication.
Verbal probability phrases are often used in science communication to express estimated risks in words instead of numbers. In this study, the authors looked at how laypeople and statisticians interpret Dutch probability phrases that are regularly used in news articles. They found that there is a large variability in interpretations, even if the phrases are given in a neutral context. They also found that statisticians do not agree on the interpretation of the phrases.
Adapted from publication abstract.
Interpretation of Dutch Articles Probability Phrases - Miscommunication Risk
Source:
Willems S, Albers C, Smeets I. Variability in the Interpretation of Probability Phrases Used in Dutch News Articles - A Risk for Miscommunication. Journal of Science Communication 2020; 19 (02). https://doi.org/10.22323/2.19020203