Resources Repository
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BriefPublication 2023Dynamic Mortality Modeling: Incorporating Predictions of Future General Population Mortality into CEA
This study addresses the limitations of conventional static approaches in health economic modeling by proposing …
This study addresses the limitations of conventional static approaches in health economic modeling by proposing a dynamic general population mortality modeling method. Using a replication of the axicabtagene ciloleucel model from NICE appraisal TA559, the authors demonstrate the potential impact of this approach on estimating life-years and cost-effectiveness. The model utilizes national mortality projections and updates mortality rates annually, considering different assumptions around age distribution. Results show that incorporating dynamic calculations increases undiscounted life-years attributed…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Europe | Mathematical Models | Health/Medicine -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2023Survival Extrapolation Incorporating General Population Mortality Using Excess Hazard and Cure Models: Tutorial
The study examines the utility of excess hazard (EH) methods in reducing model uncertainty when …
The study examines the utility of excess hazard (EH) methods in reducing model uncertainty when estimating long-term survival in cost-effectiveness analyses. Using a case study of breast cancer patients, standard parametric survival models were compared with EH methods incorporating general population mortality rates, with and without a cure parameter. Results showed substantial variability in survival extrapolations across standard models, while EH methods, particularly EH cure models, significantly reduced uncertainty. Long-term treatment effects approached null for…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Europe | Mathematical Models | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2022Spatial-Mechanistic Model to Estimate Sub-National Tuberculosis Burden in Brazilian Municipalities
Reliable subnational estimates of TB incidence are needed to focus disease control resources in areas …
Reliable subnational estimates of TB incidence are needed to focus disease control resources in areas of highest need. This study developed an approach for generating small area estimates of TB incidence, and the fraction of individuals missed by routine case detection, based on available notification and mortality data. The approach is demonstrated by estimating TB outcomes for 5568 municipalities in Brazil, revealing substantial subnational differences in disease burden and other metrics useful for designing high-impact…
Health Outcomes | Latin America & Caribbean | Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2022Emerging Therapies for COVID-19: The Value of Information From More Clinical Trials
The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated time-sensitive policy and implementation decisions regarding new therapies in the face …
The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated time-sensitive policy and implementation decisions regarding new therapies in the face of uncertainty. This study aimed to quantify consequences of approving therapies or pursuing further research. The authors used a cohort state-transition model for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs associated with multiple drug regimens and usual care. For each they assessed immediate approval, use only in research, emergency use authorization or reject. They conducted cost-effectiveness…
Value of Information | Europe | State-Transition | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | North America -
ArticlePublication 2022Early HPV Natural History Transitions
Microsimulation models used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of novel cervical cancer screening technologies rely on …
Microsimulation models used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of novel cervical cancer screening technologies rely on accurate transition risks for human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, persistence (or absence of HPV clearance), progression to precancerous lesions, and invasion. To inform the refinement of such models, we compared the early natural history of HPV types using prospective data from immunocompetent women in the Guanacaste Natural History Study, the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study, and the Costa Rica HPV Vaccine Trial. We…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Latin America & Caribbean | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of COVID-19 on Cancer Diagnosis and Survival in Chile
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in …
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in Chile, using a microsimulation model of five cancers: breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach. The model simulates cancer incidence and progression, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities, and was calibrated to empirical data on monthly detected cases, stage at diagnosis, and 5-year net survival. The analysis accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on month-by-month excess mortality and…
Health Outcomes | Latin America & Caribbean | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk -
ArticlePublication 2022Distributional Effects of Tobacco Tax Increases across Mexico: An ECEA
This study examines the distributional impacts of a one-peso tobacco tax increase in Mexico, focusing …
This study examines the distributional impacts of a one-peso tobacco tax increase in Mexico, focusing on health, poverty, and financial outcomes at the subnational level. Utilizing an extended cost-effectiveness analysis, the research estimates various metrics such as life-years gained, smoking attributable deaths averted, treatment costs averted, and financial impacts by income group across five regions. Findings reveal that the tax increase would lead to significant benefits, including approximately 1.5 million smokers quitting across the regions,…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Latin America & Caribbean | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2016Mexico's SSB Tax Policy Impact on Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease: Modeling Study
In 2014, Mexico instituted a nationwide tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in order to reduce …
In 2014, Mexico instituted a nationwide tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in order to reduce the high level of SSB consumption, a preventable cause of diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD). In this analyses, a computer simulation model of CVD was used to project potential long-range health and economic impacts of SSB taxation in Mexico. Two main scenarios were modeled: (1) a 10% reduction in SSB consumption (corresponding to the reduction observed after tax implementation) and…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Latin America & Caribbean | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Food/Agriculture | Government/Law | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2018HTA and MCDA Solely or Combined? The Case of Priority-Setting in Colombia
Given the limited resources available worldwide, healthcare systems face problems of justice and efficiency related …
Given the limited resources available worldwide, healthcare systems face problems of justice and efficiency related to setting priorities. Two methods, Health Technology Assessment (HTA) and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) have emerged as tools to assist in informed decision-making, but both have advantages and disadvantages. Colombia established a Health Technology Assessment Institute in 2012. The authors discuss challenges faced by the Colombian health system, characteristics of HTA in Colombia and the potential benefits and drawbacks of…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Latin America & Caribbean | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine