Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2007Modeling HPV and Cervical Cancer in the U.S. for Analyses of Screening and Vaccination
This paper discusses a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer that incorporates uncertainty …
This paper discusses a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer that incorporates uncertainty about the natural history of disease that was used to provide quantitative insight into U.S. policy choices for cervical cancer prevention. The authors developed a stochastic microsimulation of cervical cancer that distinguishes different HPV types by their incidence, clearance, persistence, and progression. For each set of sampled input parameters, likelihood-based goodness-of-fit (GOF) scores were computed based on comparisons between model-predicted…
Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2007Multiparameter Calibration of a Natural History Model of Cervical Cancer
This paper presents a two-step approach to model calibration of a comprehensive natural history model …
This paper presents a two-step approach to model calibration of a comprehensive natural history model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer. Using primary epidemiologic data from a longitudinal study of women in Brazil, a plausible range for each input parameter was identified that would produce model output within the 95% confidence intervals of the data. The authors then performed a simultaneous search over all input parameters to identify parameter sets that produced output consistent…
Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2007Cost Effectiveness of Interventions to Reduce Maternal Mortality in Mexico
This article, published in PloS One, uses maternal mortality data from Mexico to examine trends …
This article, published in PloS One, uses maternal mortality data from Mexico to examine trends in the provision of maternal health services and the trajectory towards reaching the Millennium Development Goal 5 (MDG 5). The authors developed a model of the natural history of pregnancy and pregnancy related complications and simulated a cohort of 15-year-old women over their lifetime based on national data. The model produced clinical outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of the current standard…
Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2007Mortality-Risk Valuation and Age
This article addresses whether a single value of statistical life (VSL) should be applied to …
This article addresses whether a single value of statistical life (VSL) should be applied to all age groups or whether lower values should be used for the elderly, recognizing that their life expectancies are shorter than those of younger people. Surveys of different age groups' willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality-risk reductions can potentially help resolve this issue. The 36 studies reviewed suggest that the literature is split on whether older people have a lower WTP…
Preferences/Values | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Climate/Environment | College | Graduate | Critical Thinking/Analysis -
ReviewPublication 2006Ethical Issues in Resource Allocation, Research, and New Product Development
Ethical dilemmas arising in setting priorities among interventions and among individuals in need of care …
Ethical dilemmas arising in setting priorities among interventions and among individuals in need of care are most acute when needs are great and resources few. This chapter from the Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries 2nd edition addresses some of these concerns, identifying some of the principal ethical issues that arise in the development and allocation of effective interventions for developing countries and discussing some alternative resolutions. Resource allocation in health and elsewhere should satisfy two main…
Preferences/Values | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Culture/Society | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
Tutorial/PrimerPublication, Teaching Resource 2005Refining Clinical Diagnosis with Likelihood Ratios
This article serves as a concise tutorial about the interpretation and use of likelihood ratios …
This article serves as a concise tutorial about the interpretation and use of likelihood ratios in clinical decision-making. Likelihood ratios can refine clinical diagnosis on the basis of signs and symptoms; however, they are underused for patients' care. A likelihood ratio is the percentage of ill people with a given test result divided by the percentage of well individuals with the same result. Ideally, abnormal test results should be much more typical in ill individuals…
Test Performance | Value of Information | Health/Medicine -
ReviewPublication 2005Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems
This review monograph was prepared in response to a request from the United States Air …
This review monograph was prepared in response to a request from the United States Air Force Research Laboratory for a study of modern decision science that would aid in its planning of research programs and, more specifically, developing methods and tools for decision support. The emphasis is on relatively high-level decisionmaking rather than, say, that of pilots or intelligence analysts in the midst of real-time operations. They focus largely on what the military refers to as…
Decision Theory | Decision Psychology | Decision Analysis | Military/Defense | North America -
ReviewPublication 2003Public Health Policy and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
This chapter presents an overview of the uses for cost-effectiveness analysis and disease-simulation modeling to …
This chapter presents an overview of the uses for cost-effectiveness analysis and disease-simulation modeling to rigorously evaluate alternatives to reduce mortality from cervical cancer. Scientific advances have provided opportunities over time to revisit strategies for cervical cancer prevention. How to invest health resources wisely, such that public health benefits are maximized-and opportunity costs are minimized-is a critical question in the setting of enhanced cytologic screening methods, human papillomavirus DNA testing, and vaccine development. Developing sound…
Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Global -
BookPublication 2003WHO Guide to Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
This 2003 guide provides a method of assessing the cost-effectiveness of health interventions for an …
This 2003 guide provides a method of assessing the cost-effectiveness of health interventions for an international audience. The authors aim to inform the policy maker and to maximize the generalizability of results across settings. Part I begins with a description of cost-effectiveness analysis. It then considers issues relating to study design, estimating costs, assessing health effects, discounting, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and reporting results. Part II provides examples to illustrate the principles in Part I. Detailed discussions…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Global