Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2021Impact of COVID-19 on Cancer Diagnosis and Survival in Chile
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in …
This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in cancer diagnosis in Chile, using a microsimulation model of five cancers: breast, cervix, colorectal, prostate, and stomach. The model simulates cancer incidence and progression, as well as stage-specific cancer detection and survival probabilities, and was calibrated to empirical data on monthly detected cases, stage at diagnosis, and 5-year net survival. The analysis accounted for the impact of COVID-19 on month-by-month excess mortality and…
Calibration/Validation | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Latin America & Caribbean -
ArticlePublication 2021Impact of Treatment and Imaging Modalities on Global Breast Cancer Survival
This analysis used a microsimulation model of global cancer survival to simulate 5-year net survival …
This analysis used a microsimulation model of global cancer survival to simulate 5-year net survival for women with newly diagnosed breast cancer in 200 countries/territories in 2018, accounting for the availability and stage-specific survival impact of specific treatment modalities (chemotherapy, radiotherapy, surgery, and targeted therapy), imaging modalities (ultrasound, x-ray, CT, MRI, PET, and single-photon emission computed tomography [SPECT]), and quality of cancer care. The model was calibrated to empirical data on 5-year net breast cancer…
Calibration/Validation | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Priority Setting in Early Childhood Development: An Analytical Framework
Early childhood development (ECD) sets the foundation for healthy and successful lives with important consequences …
Early childhood development (ECD) sets the foundation for healthy and successful lives with important consequences for education, labor market outcomes, and other domains of well-being. Even though many ECD interventions are implemented and evaluated globally, there is currently no standardized framework for comparing these interventions’ relative cost-effectiveness. The investigators developed an economic evaluation framework that focuses on the immediate impact of ECD interventions targeting motor, cognitive, language, and socioemotional skills. They applied the framework to compute…
Decision Analysis | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Global -
ArticlePublication 2020Infectious Disease Pandemic Planning and Response: Incorporating Decision Analysis
During a pandemic, decisions must be made under rapidly changing, uncertain conditions. Despite advances in …
During a pandemic, decisions must be made under rapidly changing, uncertain conditions. Despite advances in analytical methods for gaining early situational awareness (i.e., of a disease’s transmissibility and severity) and for predicting the likely effectiveness of interventions, a major gap exists globally in terms of integrating this information in policy documents. The authors argue that mathematical and statistical models are important tools for pandemic planning and response. Once an outbreak of pandemic potential has been…
Decision Analysis | Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2021Resource Pack: Risk, Economics, and Decisions
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, includes articles from the …
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, includes articles from the Risk Analysis special issue “Risk Assessment, Economic Evaluation, and Decisions” honoring Professor John Evans. The special issue was guest edited by CHDS’ Deputy Director Lisa A. Robinson and builds upon a 2019 workshop organized by Ms. Robinson and CHDS faculty James K. Hammitt. Articles include: James K. Hammitt, Lisa A. Robinson. Introduction to Special Issue on Risk Assessment,…
Decision Analysis | Risk Analysis | Policy/Regulation -
ArticlePublication 2020Testing for SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. Recently, the UK government has made …
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. Recently, the UK government has made antibody testing available to anyone wanting it, even if there is no clinical indication. The purpose of this article is to provide guidance for when to consider antibody testing in individuals with and without symptoms suggestive of current or past SARS-CoV-2 infection. Key points made by the authors include: (1) antibody testing is likely to be most useful 2 weeks…
Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine -
ToolInteractive 2020COVID-19 Antibody Tests: Calculator for Interpreting Test Results
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. This interactive calculator, linked to the article …
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. This interactive calculator, linked to the article below* on antibody testing for SARS-CoV-2 virus, allows users to vary the prior probability of infection, the sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing, and the specificity of SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing. Key points made in the article accompanying the interactive include: (1) antibody testing is likely to be most useful 2 weeks after infection, (2) sensitivity and specificity will vary over time and…
Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
Resource PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2021Resource Pack: Role of Heuristics in Avalanche Education
Making decisions about backcountry skiing requires one to predict, manage, and mitigate avalanche risk. Individuals …
Making decisions about backcountry skiing requires one to predict, manage, and mitigate avalanche risk. Individuals need to understand and be comfortable with the language of probability, as well as appreciate the cognitive biases that can come into play in the context of decision making. This collection includes articles that range from early attempts to identify “heuristic traps,” based on a retrospective analysis of avalanche accidents in the United States more than 20 years ago, to…
Probability/Bayes | Decision Psychology | Injuries/Accidents | Climate/Environment | Culture/Society | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership -
EditorialPublication 2020Waiting for Certainty on COVID-19 Antibody Tests — At What Cost?
This perspective anticipates the availability of serologic antibody testing and considers its potential usefulness in mitigation …
This perspective anticipates the availability of serologic antibody testing and considers its potential usefulness in mitigation policy to reduce COVID-19 transmission. For example: Could we screen for serologic antibodies as a proxy for possible immunity and identify people who could return to the workplace with less severe mitigation measures? The authors acknowledge the uncertainties raised by many policy actors, including the WHO, such as, "Do antibodies confer immunity and, if so, for how long? How accurate is…
Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global | North America